New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Series Preview & Prediction: 2026 WNBA Playoffs
Updated September 26, 2026
Updated September 26, 2026
The 2026 WNBA playoffs open with a first-round series between the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty. Minnesota earned the No. 1 seed at 33-11, while New York finished 26-18 and fell to No. 8 after consecutive losses to Atlanta. Still, the Liberty won 2 of 3 meetings with the Lynx during the regular season, including a 93-81 victory in Minneapolis on September 18. Minnesota has the better full-season track record, but New York has already shown it can create the kind of half-court game that gives the Lynx problems.
Minnesota Too Heavily Favored
Kalshi’s series pricing features a 77% chance for the Lynx to advance and 24% for the Liberty. My estimate is closer to 71% Minnesota and 29% for New York. The gap comes from giving more credit to how New York has performed specifically against Minnesota rather than treating the teams strictly through their overall records.
Variance Could Benefit NY
Minnesota finished with a 113.4 offensive rating, 104.4 defensive rating, and +9.0 net rating, while New York finished around a +4 net rating. That is a real quality gap. However, a best-of-3 format creates more upset variance than a longer series, and New York gets Game 2 at Barclays Center. At 24¢, the Liberty do not need to be close to a coin flip to offer value. A 29% model estimate gives a 5% edge, but that edge shrinks quickly if the price rises or if Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are limited.
Recommended Position:
Liberty to Advance
Current Price:
24¢
Model Probability:
29%
Market Probability:
24%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
27¢
Model Confidence:
70/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Minnesota deserves to be favored, but the current series price appears to put too much weight on the 33-11 versus 26-18 record gap and too little on New York’s head-to-head results, its recent road win in Minneapolis, and the uncertainty surrounding Olivia Miles’ calf. New York also has major health questions, so this is a value position rather than a claim that the Liberty are the more likely series winner.”
The strongest argument for Minnesota is simple: the Lynx were one of the best two-way teams in the league for nearly the entire season. They finished 33-11, scored 90.8 points per game, shot 47.7% from the field, and ended the year with a 113.4 offensive rating and 104.4 defensive rating. That combination produced a +9.0 net rating, well ahead of New York, making Minnesota the heavy favorite in this series at Kalshi.
Minnesota also finished the regular season on a strong note. With Miles sidelined, the Lynx beat Indiana 86-66 on September 24. Kayla McBride scored 22 points, Natasha Howard added 21, and Courtney Williams finished with 10 assists. That matters because Miles has carried a large creation load this season. Minnesota showed in the finale that it can still generate offense through McBride, Williams, Howard, and Napheesa Collier if the rookie guard is unavailable or restricted.
The Lynx also led the WNBA with 18.2 points off turnovers per game. New York, by comparison, ranked last in that category at 13.3. If Minnesota can pressure the Liberty into empty possessions and turn those mistakes into easy points, the series can tilt quickly.
The Liberty’s 26-18 record is less impressive, but this opponent has brought out some of their best basketball. New York won the season series 2-1 and took the most recent meeting 93-81 at Target Center. Breanna Stewart had 24 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals in that win, while Jonquel Jones added 18 points and 10 rebounds.
That game is especially relevant because Minnesota had its main creators available. Olivia Miles scored 20 points, yet New York still controlled the closing stretch and outscored the Lynx 23-12 after Minnesota took a 69-67 lead early in the fourth quarter. The Liberty were able to defend without sending constant extra help, rebound well enough to finish possessions, and use Stewart as a scorer from several areas of the floor.
New York also won the first meeting 99-86 before Minnesota answered with a 90-85 victory in July. Three regular-season games are not enough to erase Minnesota’s broader statistical advantage, but they do show that New York’s personnel can make this series uncomfortable.
The most important individual battle is Breanna Stewart against Napheesa Collier. Stewart finished the regular season averaging 20.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Her ability to score in the post, attack slower defenders off the dribble, and defend several positions gives New York a path to winning possessions that break down late in the shot clock.
Collier returned during the second half of the season after offseason ankle procedures and gave Minnesota another high-level scorer and defender alongside Miles, McBride, Howard, and Williams. Minnesota does not need Collier to dominate the ball. Her value comes from being able to score efficiently while also guarding Stewart for stretches and helping Minnesota keep its defensive structure intact.
If Stewart is healthy enough to play her normal minutes, New York can keep the floor spaced and force Minnesota to defend all 5 positions. If her knee soreness affects her movement, the Liberty’s offensive ceiling drops sharply.
Health is the biggest source of uncertainty entering Game 1. Stewart missed New York’s regular-season finale with left knee soreness. Jones then rolled her left ankle against Atlanta and left in the third quarter. Satou Sabally is already out for the season because of a head injury.
Minnesota has its own major concern. Miles missed the final 2 regular-season games with a left calf injury. She averaged 19.8 points and 6.0 assists while becoming the engine of one of the league’s best offenses. The Lynx beat Indiana 86-66 without her in the finale, but replacing her shot creation over a playoff series is a much different assignment.
For the Liberty price to remain attractive, Stewart and Jones need to be close to full availability. If either is ruled out or placed on a significant minutes restriction, the 29% series estimate should move lower. The same logic applies in the other direction if Miles cannot play.
Minnesota’s easiest path is to force New York into live-ball turnovers, run before the defense gets set, and make the Liberty defend multiple actions in a possession. The Lynx shot 38.2% from 3-point range for the season, one of the best marks in the league, and they have enough shooting to punish slow rotations.
New York needs to reduce the number of possessions Minnesota creates from mistakes. The Liberty also need Jones to control the defensive glass and create interior scoring against a Lynx frontcourt led by Howard and Collier. New York’s 3-point shooting can be volatile, especially with Sabrina Ionescu having an uneven shooting season, so relying on a huge perimeter advantage would be risky.
The better formula is the one New York used on September 18: keep turnovers manageable, get Stewart involved early, let Jones pressure the interior, and force Minnesota to score against a set defense.
Minnesota is the rightful favorite. Its season-long efficiency, home-court advantage in Games 1 and 3, depth, shooting, and defensive activity give the Lynx the higher probability of advancing. A 33-11 record and +9.0 net rating are hard to dismiss.
The question is whether a 77% market probability is too high. My answer is yes. New York has beaten Minnesota twice, has already won at Target Center, and has the star power to steal a short series if Stewart and Jones are healthy. The best-of-3 format adds variance, while Miles’ calf creates another layer of uncertainty for the favorite.
At 24¢, New York offers enough upside to justify the risk. My projection gives the Liberty a 29% chance to win the series, producing an 8% edge over the current Kalshi price. Minnesota is still more likely to advance, but New York is the side I would take at the current number.
