Updated September 7, 2026
Liverpool welcome Atlético Madrid to Anfield on Wednesday, September 9, for their opening match of the 2026-27 Champions League league phase. Liverpool finally earned their first Premier League victory under Andoni Iraola with a 2-0 win at Ipswich, while Atlético arrive after a troubling 3-0 defeat at Athletic Club. With both clubs facing their first of eight league-phase matches, taking three points from a difficult opening fixture could make the path to the knockout rounds considerably easier.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Liverpool appear slightly underpriced given their home advantage, Alexander Isak's early-season scoring form, Atlético's poor latest performance, and the visitors' attacking absences.”
Liverpool Favored to Win At Home
Polymarket has Liverpool priced at 56¢ to win in regulation time, with the draw at 24¢ and Atlético Madrid at 21¢. Those prices clearly favor Liverpool, but the gap may still be too small. My estimate gives Iraola's side a 61% chance of winning, creating a 5% edge against the current Liverpool price.
Both Teams Struggling, But There Is Value
There is risk in taking the favorite. Liverpool opened the Premier League season with consecutive 2-2 draws against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest before beating Ipswich. Their defensive structure is still settling under Iraola. Even so, Atlético's latest showing was considerably worse. Diego Simeone's team lost 3-0 at Athletic Club and managed little attacking threat after falling behind. Alexander Sorloth is also expected to miss the trip through injury, while Arnau Ortiz is unavailable through suspension. Liverpool at anything up to 59¢ remains an appealing prediction.
Recommended Prediction:
Liverpool to Win
Current Market Price:
56¢
Model Win Probability:
61%
Market-Implied Probability:
56%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
59¢
Model Trade Confidence:
80/100
Alexander Isak has quickly become the key figure in Liverpool's attack. He scored against Nottingham Forest and then struck twice inside the opening 9 minutes at Ipswich, giving him three goals across the club's last two Premier League matches.
Cody Gakpo created both goals at Ipswich, and Liverpool now have another option after Bradley Barcola made his debut from the bench. That depth should help Iraola attack an Atlético defense that looked vulnerable at San Mamés.
Atlético started their La Liga campaign with a 2-0 victory over Málaga, followed by a 2-2 draw with Villarreal and a 3-1 win at Sevilla. That gave Simeone's side 7 points from their first three matches before Athletic Club exposed them in a 3-0 defeat.
The concern was how quickly the contest moved away from Atlético after halftime. Athletic scored twice shortly after the interval before adding a third late. Atlético have now conceded 6 goals across four league matches after starting the campaign with a clean sheet.
Isak's movement could be the decisive individual matchup. Liverpool have shown a willingness to find him quickly rather than spend long spells circulating possession around the penalty area. That approach produced immediate results at Ipswich.
Atlético traditionally prefer to defend with numbers behind the ball, but Liverpool can create problems if Gakpo, Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai find Isak before Simeone's defensive block is fully established. The visitors cannot afford the type of slow defensive reactions that hurt them against Athletic Club.
Liverpool's 2-0 victory at Ipswich was their first clean sheet of the Premier League season. The previous two games both finished 2-2, so one strong defensive showing does not erase every concern.
Joe Gomez, Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, Federico Chiesa and Giovanni Leoni have all recently been sidelined, although Liverpool still have enough quality to field a strong starting side.
The first goal will carry extra weight. Atlético are far more comfortable protecting a lead with a compact shape than chasing a match, while Liverpool's pace and movement become much harder to contain once opponents have to commit players forward.
Liverpool should also benefit from playing at Anfield after Atlético were comprehensively beaten in their latest away match. The visitors have enough talent to make this uncomfortable, but Liverpool's attacking improvement and stronger options in the final third give them the edge.
The Polymarket price already recognizes Liverpool as the favorite, yet 56¢ still looks a little short of their true chance of taking all three points. A Liverpool victory is my prediction, with a projected final score of 2-1.
