Updated August 18, 2026
Arsenal enter 2026/27 in unfamiliar territory. For the first time in more than two decades, Mikel Arteta's side begin a Premier League campaign as defending champions rather than challengers.
The question for bettors is not whether Arsenal are good enough to compete again. The numbers leave very little doubt about that. The more interesting question is whether last season contained enough repeatable performance to justify backing them at short title odds, or whether their 85-point campaign relied on margins likely to disappear.
The underlying data makes a strong case for Arsenal remaining near the top.
They finished 2025/26 with 71 goals scored and only 27 conceded, producing a +44 goal difference. Their underlying numbers were slightly less dominant but still excellent: approximately 66.1 expected goals and 30.0 expected goals against across 38 league matches. That works out at roughly 1.74 xG created and 0.79 xGA conceded per game.
This shows that The Gunners' emphatic title win was no fluke. Arsenal scored only around five goals more than their xG and conceded roughly three fewer than expected. This was not a title built on a huge finishing hot streak or an impossibly fortunate defensive season, but rather one built on sustainable foundations.
If there is one reason to be confident about Arsenal again, it is the defense.
No Premier League team conceded fewer than Arsenal's 27 goals last season, while David Raya finished with 19 clean sheets. Their xGA of just under 30 suggests the actual goals-against number was not simply the product of exceptional goalkeeping or opponents repeatedly missing easy chances.
In other words, teams found it incredibly difficult to create good opportunities against Arsenal.
That should continue to influence weekly betting markets. Arsenal matches do not necessarily need to become low-scoring games, but their defensive floor makes markets such as Arsenal to win to nil, opponent team totals and Arsenal clean sheets worth monitoring, particularly at the Emirates against bottom-half opponents.
It also gives them an important advantage in the outright market. A team conceding fewer than 0.8 xG per game does not need an explosive attack every week to accumulate points.
There is one early-season concern. William Saliba remains sidelined after suffering a serious back injury during the World Cup, while Jurrien Timber continues to work his way back from a groin problem. Arsenal have added defensive depth, however, and their overall structure under Arteta has proved far less dependent on any single defender than it once was.
This is perhaps the most interesting part of Arsenal's 2026/27 outlook. The champions scored 71 Premier League goals from approximately 66 xG. That is good finishing, but hardly a statistical outlier. Manchester City actually scored more league goals despite finishing behind Arsenal. Arsenal also generated 552 shots, or 14.5 per match, with 186 hitting the target.
The opportunity this season is therefore not simply to become more clinical. It is to increase attacking volume and create more consistently from open play. That was one of the weaknesses hidden by Arsenal's exceptional set-piece production last season.
Arsenal scored 25 non-penalty set-piece goals, the highest figure in the Premier League. That means roughly 35% of their 71 league goals arrived from dead-ball situations.
Their corner routines were particularly effective, with Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka providing dangerous inswinging delivery from opposite sides. Arsenal repeatedly attacked the six-yard box and used Gabriel, Saliba and their other physical players to disrupt defensive structures.
That is relevant beyond simply predicting Arsenal's season.
For individual games, Arsenal defender anytime scorer markets, particularly Gabriel when he starts, deserve more attention than they would at most clubs. The same applies to Arsenal corner totals and team set-piece props where sportsbooks offer them.
There is some regression risk. Twenty-five set-piece goals is an extraordinary total and should not automatically be projected forward.
That brings us back to the futures market.
An Arsenal 79+ points position does not require them to reproduce every element of an 85-point title season.
Their 2025/26 underlying profile gives them significant margin for error:
The set-piece total may regress. The defense might concede a few more than 27, especially with Saliba absent for much of the first half of the season.
But Arsenal do not need either number to remain quite that extreme. The additions of Tzolis and Bruno give them another path to increasing open-play production, while the core defensive structure that powered the title remains largely intact. Arsenal have also begun the season strongly, beating Manchester City 3-0 in the Community Shield before their Premier League opener against Coventry.
For a team coming off 85 points with an elite xGA profile, asking for 79 is effectively betting that Arsenal remain one of England's three or four best teams rather than demanding another title-winning campaign. That is a considerably easier proposition to support.
Arsenal's attacking profile gives bettors several different ways into the player prop market. Saka's consistent shot volume, Gyökeres' high-quality chances, Tzolis' dual scoring and creative threat, and Bruno Guimarães' advanced midfield role all point toward different markets rather than a one-size-fits-all goalscorer approach.
Player | Key Metric / Angle | Target Market |
Christos Tzolis | High box-entry volume; dead-ball creator | To Score or Assist / 1+ Shot on Target |
Bukayo Saka | High shot floor (2.87/90) vs. low finishing variance | Over 2.5 Shots (Fade anytime goalscorer) |
Viktor Gyökeres | High chance quality (0.23xG/shot), low shot volume | Anytime Goalscorer vs. low-block teams |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.28 npxG + xA/90 plays higher in attack | 1+ Shot / Assist Props |
In summary, it is easy to see why Arsenal are favored to retain their Premier League title. The underlying metrics from last season suggest their success was built on repeatable strengths rather than a short-term hot streak, while the additions of Bruno Guimarães and Christos Tzolis have added further depth and attacking quality.
Saliba's prolonged absence is a concern, and Arsenal now have to deal with the pressure of being the hunted rather than the hunter. Even so, their defensive base, set-piece threat and improved squad make them difficult to oppose. That also supports the 79+ points futures bet, while Arsenal win-to-nil markets and player props involving Saka, Tzolis and Gyökeres should provide additional betting opportunities throughout the season.
