Avalanche vs Maple Leafs Player Props: MacKinnon to Score Again?

Henrik NormanSenior Sports & Prediction Markets Analyst

Updated November 10, 2026

Nathan MacKinnon has already scored twice against Toronto this season. Now he gets another opportunity against a Maple Leafs team that has lost three straight games.

Colorado visits Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday, November 10, with MacKinnon's 1+ goal YES contract available at 41¢ on Polymarket US. That's my preferred player prop for this matchup, with an estimated probability of 46–49%.

Player Prop to Watch: Nathan MacKinnon 1+ Goal

Selection: Nathan MacKinnon 1+ GOAL YES — 41¢ on Polymarket US

MacKinnon has 10 goals and 20 assists through 18 games, and Toronto knows firsthand how dangerous he can be. He scored twice and registered eight shots on goal when these teams met on October 10, although the Maple Leafs ultimately won 6-3.

He's coming off another productive performance, recording a goal and two assists in Colorado's 4-0 victory over Detroit on Saturday.

The interesting part is the price. MacKinnon has scored in eight of his 18 appearances this season, giving him a 44.4% hit rate. Polymarket currently offers YES at 41¢, leaving a little room for value even before accounting for Toronto's recent problems.

I have his chances slightly higher at 46–49%. That's a modest advantage, but enough to make this my preferred selection.

Avalanche vs Maple Leafs — Live Prediction Market
NHL · November 10, 2026
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Toronto's Defensive Problems Create an Opportunity

The Maple Leafs have lost three consecutive games and six of their last seven. Their latest defeat was a 4-0 shutout against New Jersey on Sunday.

Making matters worse, Toronto played that game without Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev. Rielly is dealing with a lower-body injury, while Tanev was held out for planned maintenance. Their availability for Tuesday remains worth monitoring.

Colorado's top line features MacKinnon alongside Martin Necas and Artturi Lehkonen. That's a difficult assignment for any defense, particularly one dealing with injuries and inconsistent performances.

Other Player Props Worth Watching in Avalanche vs Maple Leafs

MacKinnon isn't the only interesting name on the board.

Martin Necas has a 1+ assist YES contract at 52¢, while Cale Makar's equivalent market is available at 53¢. Both are worth monitoring given their involvement in Colorado's offense.

On Toronto's side, Auston Matthews 1+ goal YES is available at 40¢. Matthews has 11 goals this season and remains Toronto's biggest individual scoring threat.

Still, I prefer MacKinnon's goal contract. His recent production, previous performance against Toronto and the current price provide a clearer argument.

For more NHL predictions and upcoming matchups, visit our NHL player props hub or explore the latest NHL prediction market prices.