NFL Week 9 Recap: Don't Let These 3 Final Scores Fool You
Updated November 10, 2026
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Updated November 10, 2026
NFL Week 9 was a good one for favorites. They won 14 of 15 games outright and went 9-3 against the spread in games with available closing lines. For the most part, the better teams won, and the worse teams lost. End of story, right?
Well, not quite. A final score doesn't always tell the full story, and a few Week 9 results were more misleading than they might appear at first glance.
Below, I'll break down three final scores that deserve a closer look, especially if you didn't watch the games.
Using advanced stats like EPA per play, offensive success rate, and postgame win probability, I'll explain what the scoreboard might be hiding and how we can use those findings to our advantage when making NFL predictions and trading on Polymarket in Week 10 and beyond.
The Broncos improved to 7-2 with a 26-21 win over the Panthers, extending their streak to 16 consecutive victories in one-score games. But despite the win, some advanced stats suggest Carolina may have actually played better.
According to PerThirtySix, the Panthers finished with a higher EPA per play (+0.13 vs. +0.06), a better offensive success rate (46.8% vs. 43.8%), and more explosive plays (7 vs. 3).
So how did Carolina end up losing? A couple of costly mistakes played a big role.
The first came late in the third quarter, with Carolina leading 14-13 and facing first-and-goal at Denver's 1-yard line. Bryce Young's pass to Tommy Tremble was initially ruled incomplete, but Denver successfully challenged the call, turning it into an interception by Devon Key.
The Broncos took advantage, scoring touchdowns on their next two drives to go ahead 26-14. Carolina eventually cut the deficit to five, but Nik Bonitto's strip-sack of Young with 1:24 remaining ended its comeback attempt.
Penalties didn't help either. The Panthers committed 13 for 119 yards, compared to Denver's eight for 50 yards.
Carolina had plenty of opportunities to pull off the upset, and the underlying numbers suggest this game could have gone either way. Denver made the plays that mattered most, but the final score doesn't tell the whole story.
If we think the Broncos-Panthers final score was misleading, how can we use that information to our advantage? We have two options: fade Denver or back Carolina.
With the Broncos on a bye in Week 10, and given my lack of interest in going against Bo Nix and Sean Payton in close games (they somehow always find a way to win, especially at home), I'm more interested in buying the Panthers.
Carolina is currently trading at 48 cents on Polymarket to beat the New Orleans Saints this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. That's roughly a 48% implied win probability, and I think there's value at that price.
A few numbers stand out to me heading into this matchup:
Of course, there's reason for caution. Tyler Shough and the Saints swept Carolina last season, and New Orleans has home-field advantage.
Still, after watching the Panthers nearly knock off Denver, I like their chances of bouncing back against a weaker Saints defense.
Another option is Carolina over 7.5 regular-season wins, currently trading at 41 cents on Polymarket. The Panthers are 3-5, so they'd need to win five of their final nine games for this position to pay off.
That's a tough ask, but if Carolina can keep producing the kind of offensive numbers it did against Denver while cutting down on costly turnovers and penalties, I wouldn't rule out an 8-9 finish or better.
Looking at the final score, you'd think the Cowboys barely escaped Indianapolis with a win. And technically, they did. But Dallas outgained the Colts by 237 yards, making this one of the more misleading results of Week 9.
Just look at some of the numbers:
According to PerThirtySix, Dallas also finished with a higher offensive success rate (45.7% vs. 44.1%). And perhaps most telling, Early Downs gave the Cowboys a 94% postgame win expectancy based on how both teams performed.
So why was the game so close?
Dallas kept giving Indianapolis opportunities to hang around. The Cowboys lost two fumbles, committed 14 penalties for 153 yards, and missed a 50-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter.
Those mistakes nearly cost them. Indianapolis actually took a 23-20 lead with 1:41 remaining before Dak Prescott led a quick touchdown drive to put Dallas back in front.
The Cowboys certainly have some things to clean up, but a four-point win doesn't come close to showing how much they controlled this game.
Once again, a misleading final score gives us two options: back Dallas or fade Indianapolis.
I don't hate the idea of fading the Colts, especially after their recent trades and the trade rumors surrounding Jonathan Taylor. But I don't have much confidence in the 1-7 Dolphins team they're facing next week.
So, I'm looking at Dallas instead. The Cowboys have lost three straight at home and now face a 49ers team that's tied for the NFL's best record at 7-1. Yet Dallas is only a 3.5-point underdog, with a 49-cent price on Polymarket to cover the spread and a roughly 34% implied chance of winning outright.
Yes, this one's ugly. I wouldn't blame anyone for wanting nothing to do with Dallas right now. But I think there's a case for backing the home underdog.
For one, Dallas ranks among the NFL's top 10 offenses in EPA per play and third in third-down conversion rate (47%). The Cowboys also just put up 508 yards against Indianapolis, so their offense is clearly capable of moving the ball against good teams.
The defense is a concern, especially against a 49ers team that's been one of the league's best. Still, getting 3.5 points at home with an offense this productive is worth considering, even against San Francisco.
There's also a longer-term option: Dallas to win the NFC East at 30 cents on Polymarket. That's partly a vote of confidence in the Cowboys, but also a way to fade the 5-2-1 Giants. New York has the better record, but Dallas has the more productive offense, averaging 27.3 points per game.
With several division games still to come, I wouldn't count the Cowboys out just yet.
A 17-point loss usually suggests one team was thoroughly outplayed. But that wasn't quite the case when the Falcons faced the Bengals in Madrid on Sunday.
Cincinnati was clearly the better team, but Atlanta actually outgained the Bengals on the ground (157-123), and the overall yardage difference was just 69 yards (388-319). The Falcons also cut the deficit to 24-17 in the third quarter before Cincinnati pulled away.
So, was this really a three-score mismatch?
According to Unexpected Points, the adjusted final score was Bengals 29, Falcons 22, suggesting the game was closer to a one-score contest than the actual result indicates.
A few factors help explain the difference:
Those mistakes added up. In fact, Cincinnati gained 9.7 expected points from special teams and penalties alone, accounting for much of the difference between the actual and adjusted margins.
The Bengals deserved to win, and their advantage in offensive EPA per play (+0.35 vs. +0.11) backs that up. But Atlanta wasn't nearly as overmatched as the 34-17 final score might lead you to believe.
So, should we back Atlanta or fade Cincinnati?
I don't mind the idea of buying the Falcons. They're getting 3.5 points at home against a Chiefs team I think has some flaws, and Atlanta is still in the NFC South race, with division-winner shares trading around 17 cents on Polymarket.
But I'm more interested in going against the Bengals this week.
Cincinnati returns home to face a 6-2 Steelers team on Sunday Night Football, with first place in the AFC North on the line. Pittsburgh is available at +3.5 for 50 cents on Polymarket, while an outright Steelers win is trading at 36 cents.
You can see why Cincinnati is favored. The Bengals have one of the NFL's most efficient offenses, ranking sixth in overall EPA per play (+0.14), while Joe Burrow has helped them average nearly 30 points per game.
And after Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 30-27 in Week 3, I'm sure plenty of people are expecting Burrow and company to get their revenge at home. But I'm not so convinced.
Here's why I like Pittsburgh in this matchup:
And if there's one thing I've learned about Pittsburgh over the years, it's that the Steelers rarely make life easy for their AFC North rivals.
I'm not looking to fade Cincinnati over the rest of the season. The Bengals are still a legitimate contender, and their offensive numbers back that up. But for this particular matchup, I like getting 3.5 points with a rested Steelers team against a division rival coming off an overseas trip.
