The regular season is nearing its end, and urgency could not be higher for the New York Islanders as they host the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday night. Montreal has already secured a playoff berth and sits near the top of the Atlantic Division, while New York is fighting to keep its postseason hopes alive with little margin for error. With both teams on the second half of a back-to-back, fatigue and lineup decisions may play a major role in shaping this game. Here, I break it all down and make my Canadiens vs Islanders prediction.
Canadiens vs Islanders Pick
- Pick: Montreal Canadiens moneyline
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs New York Islanders
- Date & Time: Sunday, April 12, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Recent form
Montreal enters this game in strong form, going 8-2 in its last 10 games and continuing to produce offense at an elite level. Despite a 5-2 loss on Saturday, their overall play remains steady and efficient. In contrast, the Islanders are trending in the opposite direction, posting a 4-6 record over their last 10 and coming off a 3-0 shutout loss. New York has now dropped 5 of its last 6, putting serious pressure on this must-win situation.
Goaltending
The expected matchup in net features Jakub Dobes for Montreal and Ilya Sorokin for New York. Sorokin has been reliable this season with a 2.66 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage, though he struggled in the previous outing and may be fatigued on short rest. Dobes has posted a 2.75 goals-against average with a .904 save percentage, and while not dominant, he benefits from stronger offensive support in front of him. The Islanders’ reliance on Sorokin in consecutive games introduces some volatility for them in this game that they need to win to stay alive.
Key skaters
Montreal’s offense is driven by one of the league’s top scoring duos. Cole Caufield has erupted for 51 goals this season and is among the league leaders, while Nick Suzuki is approaching the 100-point mark with 99 points.
For the Islanders, Mathew Barzal remains the primary offensive engine with 71 points, but the supporting cast has struggled to keep pace. Injuries to several forwards and depth players have further limited New York’s scoring consistency, which ranks well below Montreal’s output.
Betting Trends & H2H
- These teams have split their first two meetings of the season.
- Both games between these teams this year have gone over 6.5 goals.
- This is the first game played between these teams at the home of the Islanders after the first two were played in Montreal.
Canadiens vs Islanders Model Projection
- Score Projection: Montreal Canadiens 4 – New York Islanders 2
- Win Probability: Montreal Canadiens 58%, New York Islanders 42%
Even with the Islanders playing at home and facing elimination, the underlying numbers favor Montreal. The Canadiens have been far more consistent offensively and carry the hotter form into this matchup. Their ability to generate scoring chances, combined with elite finishing from Caufield and strong playmaking from Suzuki, gives them a clear edge. I’ll take the Habs to get the win here and help their chances of finishing atop the Atlantic Division, while the Islanders’ season effectively comes to an end.
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