Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Preview & Betting Picks - 12/21/2025
Updated December 19, 2025
Updated December 19, 2025
The NFC South will take a huge step toward being decided on Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) face the Carolina Panthers (7-7) at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. These teams are tied for first place in the division with just a few games left in the regular season, making this one of the most important games in Week 16 of the NFL season. Before kickoff from North Carolina, continue reading to get my Buccaneers vs Panthers prediction.
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The NFC South crown is still very much in play, and this game is a mini‑playoff for both teams. Tampa Bay enters Week 16 tied with Carolina at 7‑7, hoping to reclaim sole possession of first place in the division with a road win. The Buccaneers have seen their season take on a more tenuous feel after losing five of their last six contests and giving up leads late in games. They most recently surrendered a 14‑point fourth-quarter lead to the Atlanta Falcons, losing 29‑28.
Carolina also comes in at 7‑7, having dropped a tight game to the Saints late last week by a score of 20‑17. The Panthers are aiming for their first NFC South title since 2015 and will be backed by a home crowd eager for postseason relevance. The big question for the Panthers is whether their young core can deliver in this game, given their lack of big-game experience.
Tampa Bay will lean on Baker Mayfield to provide explosiveness through the air against a Carolina defense that has shown vulnerabilities against both the run and pass. Mayfield has Mike Evans back on the field and that helped him to play a productive game against the Falcons last week. But avoiding mistakes will be key for Mayfield after a sloppy fourth quarter against Atlanta last Thursday.
On the other sideline, Carolina’s Bryce Young will try to guide the Panthers to a crucial divisional victory. Young has faced ups and downs this season but has a strong connection with rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who leads the Panthers’ offense in targets and receptions. Young has 19 touchdowns and 9 interceptions and will look to pass the most important test of his pro career in this matchup.
Score Projection: Buccaneers 27 – Panthers 21
Win Probability: Buccaneers 59% | Panthers 41%
There are a couple of key factors that I think will help the Buccaneers win and cover the spread here. First, they have a sizable experience edge in big games when compared to the Panthers. On top of that, the Bucs had an extra few days to get ready for this game after playing on Thursday night last week. After an embarrassing collapse last week, I'll back the Bucs to bounce back on the road.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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