How Much of the Chargers' 0-3 Start Falls On Justin Herbert?
Updated September 29, 2026
Updated September 29, 2026
The Los Angeles Chargers entered the 2026 NFL season with expectations of contending in the AFC, but three games have changed the conversation dramatically. Los Angeles is 0-3 after losses to the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills, scoring only 44 points in the process. The offense has been the clearest problem, and that inevitably puts quarterback Justin Herbert under the microscope. Herbert has dealt with protection issues, an inconsistent supporting cast, and the transition to Mike McDaniel's offense, but his own performance has also been well below the standard expected from a franchise quarterback.
The Chargers have scored 14, 14, and 16 points in their first three games, an average of just 14.7 points per game. Through Week 3, Los Angeles ranks 31st in offensive EPA and 25th in passing EPA per play at approximately -0.13. That makes it difficult to separate Herbert from the broader offensive failure for LA.
Through three games, Herbert has completed 52 of 88 passes for 627 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions. His 59.1% completion rate and 73.4 passer rating are significant declines from his established career levels. He has thrown an interception in every game and has produced just one passing touchdown in each.
The advanced metrics have been similarly concerning. Through the first two games, PFF graded Herbert 29th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks overall and 29th as a passer. He had produced four turnover-worthy plays compared with only two big-time throws. Most concerning was his production when pressured: Herbert faced pressure on 45.5% of his dropbacks and generated approximately -0.40 EPA per play on those snaps.
That last statistic also illustrates why assigning all of the blame to Herbert would be overly simplistic. A 45.5% pressure rate is an extremely difficult environment for any quarterback. Protection problems have forced Herbert to operate under duress far too often, while Los Angeles has also struggled to establish a consistently efficient rushing attack.
The loss at Buffalo was perhaps the clearest example of the offense's issues. Los Angeles' defense forced five turnovers against one of the NFL's strongest teams, yet the Chargers scored only 16 points. Herbert threw for 226 yards and a touchdown but also threw an interception near the Buffalo goal line. An offense receiving five takeaways simply has to produce more than 16 points.
An 0-3 start does not mathematically eliminate the Chargers, but history illustrates the size of the hole they have created. Since the NFL expanded its postseason to 14 teams beginning with the 2021 season, only one of the first 25 teams to start 0-3 reached the playoffs. That was the 2025 Houston Texans. Going further back, only six teams between 1980 and 2020 overcame an 0-3 start to reach the postseason.
Los Angeles also does not have an especially forgiving schedule on which to engineer a comeback. The Chargers travel to Seattle in Week 4 before facing Denver and Kansas City, and later have games against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers and other potential playoff contenders.
Prediction-market pricing has reacted accordingly. Polymarket priced the Chargers around 65% to make the postseason before the season began, but that number fell substantially during the opening weeks. Recent market snapshots moved the Chargers to 13% to make the playoffs after the loss to Buffalo.
Herbert is critical to any turnaround. Los Angeles currently ranks far worse offensively than defensively by EPA, so the most obvious path to improvement is getting significantly more from the quarterback and McDaniel's offense.
There are plenty of legitimate explanations for the offense's struggles, including protection and the adjustment to a new system. But franchise quarterbacks are paid in part to overcome imperfect circumstances. If Herbert continues producing negative EPA, more interceptions than touchdowns, and a passer rating in the 70s, the supporting cast will become increasingly irrelevant to the larger question of why Los Angeles is losing.
Herbert entered 2026 as a legitimate candidate in NFL MVP futures markets. Polymarket pricing placed him around 10% to 12% during the preseason and near the beginning of the regular season, putting him among the prominent candidates on the board.
Three losses and three underwhelming individual performances have changed that dramatically. Recent Polymarket pricing has pushed Herbert's MVP probability down into the low single digits, with his Yes price around 1%.
Modern MVP voting overwhelmingly rewards quarterbacks who combine elite individual production with team success. Herbert currently has neither. He is averaging only 209 passing yards per game, has a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and owns a 73.4 passer rating. The Chargers are also 0-3.
The comparison with Herbert's own previous performance makes the decline especially noticeable. In 2024, he posted a 101.7 passer rating with 23 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Even during a more difficult 2025 season, Herbert finished with a 94.1 rating and 26 touchdown passes. His early 2026 efficiency is considerably worse.
There is enough season remaining for those statistics to improve dramatically, but the MVP standard is much higher than merely returning to competent quarterback play. Herbert would likely need Los Angeles to produce one of the league's most dramatic turnarounds while simultaneously putting together several months of elite individual production.
The offensive line has exposed him to too much pressure. The running game has not consistently created favorable situations. McDaniel's new offense has yet to function smoothly, and mistakes elsewhere have repeatedly made life harder. Those are legitimate mitigating factors.
But Herbert has also thrown four interceptions, struggled badly when pressured, failed to consistently sustain drives, and committed damaging mistakes in scoring situations.
Herbert remains talented enough to reverse the trajectory of the season. After three games, however, the Chargers need him to start solving the problems that have popped up on offense.
