Colts vs Commanders Prediction & Preview For NFL London Game - 10/4/2026
Updated October 2, 2026
Updated October 2, 2026
Indianapolis and Washington arrive in London with the same 1-2 record, but they got there in very different ways. The Colts finally broke through with a 19-17 win over Houston after losses to Baltimore and Kansas City, while the Commanders followed defeats to Philadelphia and Dallas with a 33-31 win over Seattle. Sunday’s game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium carries real early-season importance, because the winner gets back to 2-2 while the loser leaves England at 1-3.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Washington’s Week 3 scoring total was boosted heavily by Seattle turnovers, while the Commanders produced only 258 total yards. That result makes the offense look more productive than its down-to-down performance suggests, and Indianapolis also showed meaningful defensive improvement against Houston.”
Price vs. Projection
Polymarket currently prices Under 48.5 at 51¢ and Over 48.5 at 50¢. Indianapolis is also priced at 65¢ to win, with Washington at 36¢. The total is the more interesting market. My projection gives the under a 55.5% chance, creating a 4.5% edge over the current 51% implied probability. A 53¢ price is the highest level I would consider playable because it still leaves room between the market price and the model estimate.
Why the Under Has Value
Washington scored 33 points against Seattle, but 21 of those points followed Seahawks turnovers, including a defensive touchdown. The Commanders finished with just 258 total yards. Indianapolis, meanwhile, held Houston to 153 passing yards and 70 rushing yards in Week 3 after a poor opening two weeks. There is risk because Daniel Jones has thrown three interceptions this season and lost two fumbles against Houston, but a cleaner game points to fewer short fields and fewer cheap points.
Recommended Position:
Under 48.5
Current Price:
51¢
Model Probability:
55.5%
Market Probability:
51%
Model Edge:
4.5%
Entry Threshold:
53¢
Model Confidence:
77/100
Both teams are 1-2, making this an important spot before the schedule moves deeper into October. Indianapolis lost 41-23 to Baltimore and 33-30 at Kansas City before edging Houston 19-17. Washington opened with a 24-22 loss to Philadelphia, fell 37-20 at Dallas, then defeated Seattle 33-31. Both clubs have already played several close games, and a 2-2 record would look considerably different from returning home at 1-3.
This matchup could shape the pace of the entire Colts vs Commanders matchup. Taylor has 258 rushing yards and four touchdowns through three games, but he is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Washington has allowed only 82 rushing yards per game, 3rd best in the NFL, while also ranking 3rd in opponent rush EPA and 6th in opponent rush success rate. If the Commanders keep Taylor from creating explosive gains, Indianapolis may need Jones to string together longer drives through the air.
Jones has completed 66.3% of his passes for 611 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. He threw for 235 yards against Houston, but Indianapolis had trouble finishing drives and Jones lost two fumbles. That matters against a Washington defense that just turned three Seattle giveaways into 21 points. Indianapolis should still find chances through Josh Downs and Tyler Warren, but protecting the football is central to the under projection.
Jayden Daniels returned to limited practice this week after dislocating his left elbow in Week 2, leaving his status for Sunday unresolved as of Friday morning. Marcus Mariota is available if Daniels remains out. Mariota completed 19 of 31 passes for 183 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle. Daniels has completed 56.9% of his passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns while adding 100 rushing yards through two appearances.
Indianapolis has the stronger straight-up Polymarket price, but the total comes down to possession quality. Washington’s run defense can make the Colts work for points, while Washington’s 33-point showing last week is difficult to treat as a normal offensive baseline after three Seattle giveaways. The Colts also showed enough improvement against Houston to suggest their opening defensive numbers may overstate how easily Washington will move the ball.
If Indianapolis avoids handing Washington short fields, this game has a better chance to settle into the low-to-mid 40s than the current pricing implies. Colts 24, Commanders 21 is my projection, keeping Under 48.5 as the preferred prediction at 51¢ and playable through 53¢.
