The Indianapolis Colts (8–2) are set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (5–5) at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Colts are playing at a high level and come into this game off their bye week. They take on a Chiefs team led by Patrick Mahomes and playing in front of a raucous home crowd. The Chiefs are slight favorites going into this game. You can find my Colts vs Chiefs prediction below.
Our Colts vs Chiefs Pick
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- High leverage spot for Kansas City: With a .500 record, the Chiefs cannot afford more missteps if they want to stay in playoff contention. They have lost two straight one-possession games to the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos and have to rebound from that result in this contest.
- Arrowhead advantage: The Chiefs are tougher at home, going 4-1 at Arrowhead Stadium this season. That edge could be decisive in a close game.
- Colts’ defensive blow: Indianapolis will be without defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who was placed on injured reserve with a neck injury.
- Balance on offense: The Colts’ running and passing game is humming harmoniously as a cohesive unit. Jonathan Taylor is making a legitimate case to win NFL MVP from the running back position this year and that has made life much easier on quarterback Daniel Jones.
Quarterback Play
Daniel Jones has done an admirable job leading the offense for the Colts this season. He’s efficient, avoids big mistakes, and works well with his playmakers. But Jones had a hard time in his last road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and he will try to avoid similar struggles in this contest in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes remains the driving force behind the Chiefs’ offense. While Kansas City has struggled with consistency in 2025, Mahomes has shown throughout his career that he can raise his game when it matters most. Mahomes has 18 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions on the season and he needs to protect the football to keep the Colts from taking advantage of sudden change situations.
Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 5-5 against the spread so far this season.
- Indianapolis is 6-3-1 against the spread entering Week 12.
- The Colts have gone over the total in 6 of their first 10 games.
- The Chiefs have gone under the total in 7 of their first 10 games.
Colts vs Chiefs Model Projection
- Score Projection: Chiefs 28 – Colts 24
- Win Probability: Chiefs 60%, Colts 40%
Final Thoughts
This is a must-win for Kansas City. I think the Chiefs have the upper hand in this game between Arrowhead’s noise, Mahomes’ ability to deliver, and Indy’s recent wobble on the road against a mediocre Steelers team. While the Colts are playing excellent football overall, the quarterback mismatch and the loss of Buckner tip things in Kansas City’s favor. I recommend laying the points with the Chiefs in this contest.
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