Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Prediction - 10/5/2025
Updated September 29, 2025
Updated September 29, 2025
The Houston Texans will travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5 of the NFL season. Houston is looking to build on their first win of the season, while the Ravens aim to steady the ship after another disappointing loss in Week 4. Before these playoff teams from last season face off in a must-win matchup for both sides, continue reading to get my Texans vs Ravens prediction.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Spread | Ravens –4.5 |
Moneyline | Ravens –240, Texans +198 |
Total (O/U) | 43.5 |
Lamar Jackson’s status: Jackson exited the Ravens' Week 4 game with a hamstring injury in a 37–20 loss to Kansas City. His mobility is central to Baltimore’s offense. If he’s limited or inactive, that could take this season from bad to worse for the Ravens.
Houston’s momentum: The Texans recorded a 26–0 shutout over Tennessee in Week 4. That was their first win of the season. C.J. Stroud looked efficient and rookie running back Woody Marks was a bright spot for the Houston offense as well. But that was a win against a bad Titans team and the Texans will look to prove themselves against a better opponent here.
Baltimore defense under pressure: The Ravens' defense has been lit up so far this season. They have allowed 33.25 points per game on the year. They have to be better on that side of the ball if they want to turn this season around.
Playoff pressure: Both of these teams were playoff teams a season ago and had high expectations going into this season. But one of these teams will be 1-4 after this week, barring a tie. We should see two desperate football teams in Baltimore this week.
C.J. Stroud (Houston): Stroud’s Week 4 performance was encouraging, but he will try to prove himself against another team with recent playoff pedigree in this contest. Stroud has four touchdown passes and three interceptions this year. He will try to take advantage of the Ravens' struggling defense this week.
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore): Jackson’s dual-threat capability is a key weapon. If healthy, he can change this game with designed runs, scrambles, and his playmaking ability. If he is limited, the Ravens’ running game must pick up the slack.
Score Projection: Texans 17 – Ravens 21
Win Probability: Texans 40%, Ravens 60%
This game will hinge largely on Lamar Jackson’s health. If Jackson is available and close to full strength, Baltimore's offense should be able to do enough to offset their issues on defense. But Jackson's health is far from a given and bettors may want to wait until we know more about his status before making any decisions. For now, I'll take the under in this contest, but this game could go in any number of directions based on the health of Jackson.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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