The Philadelphia 76ers head into a tough road assignment on Sunday, when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center. This contest features one of the league’s top offenses led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against a 76ers squad coping with significant injury issues. The Thunder enter as heavy favorites, while Philadelphia will need a complete effort from Tyrese Maxey to stay competitive in this matchup. Here, you will find my 76ers vs Thunder prediction before this game tips off.
Our 76ers vs Thunder Pick
Pick: | Thunder -15.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia 76ers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date & Time: Sunday, December 28, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
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Key Storylines
- The Sixers will be without star center Joel Embiid, who has been ruled out due to a right knee issue and a right ankle sprain, leaving a major scoring void inside. Additional absences include Kelly Oubre Jr. and Trendon Watford, with Paul George listed as probable. The absence of Embiid puts more pressure on Tyrese Maxey, who averages over 30 points per game this season and has been one of the few constants for the Sixers this year.
- Oklahoma City, sitting at an impressive 26-5 record, boasts one of the best overall units in the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with over 32 points per game and remains a top MVP candidate. Despite a recent loss to San Antonio on Christmas, the Thunder’s high-powered offense and stout defense should remain a threat in front of their home crowd.
- The 76ers are struggling with consistency, recently dropping games to the Bulls and Nets. Without Embiid’s interior presence, Philadelphia will have to rely heavily on perimeter scoring from Maxey, with support from role players such as Jared McCain and Quentin Grimes. But that formula has not led to wins on a consistent basis and isn't expected to do so here either.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first of two games that the Sixers and Thunder will play against each other during the regular season this year.
- Philadelphia is 17-12 against the spread this season.
- OKC is 16-15 against the spread going into this contest.
- The Thunder are 15-16 in the over/under market going into this game, slightly favoring the under in their games.
- Philly is 14-15 in the totals market this year.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 31.5 Points |
Tyrese Maxey | Over 26.5 Points |
Isaiah Hartenstein | Over 9.5 Rebounds |
76ers vs Thunder Model Projection
Score Projection: Thunder 121 – 76ers 102
Win Probability: Thunder 87%, 76ers 13%
Final Thoughts
The Thunder are heavy favorites against the Sixers on Sunday, but I'm willing to lay the points with OKC anyway. The Thunder should be able to shut down the Sixers without Embiid to worry about in the painted area. While Tyrese Maxey might get his individual numbers again in this contest, the Thunder are going to win big, according to my projections for this contest.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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