On Tuesday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder (20–1) will visit the Golden State Warriors (11–10) at Chase Center in San Francisco. The Thunder bring a 12-game winning streak into this contest, playing exceptionally on both ends of the floor. The Warriors are dealing with a ton of injuries going into this game and will try to overcome those to pull off a huge upset. Before tip-off from the Bay Area, you will find my Thunder vs Warriors prediction below.
Our Thunder vs Warriors Pick
Pick: Thunder –12
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 2, 2025, 11:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
- Broadcast: NBC / Peacock
Thunder vs Warriors Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder –12 | Thunder –600 / Warriors +440 | 222.5 |
Key Storylines
The Thunder arrive with the best record in the NBA and a 12-game win streak, carrying elite defensive metrics into San Francisco. Their defense ranks at the top of the league in points allowed, and their offensive pace and efficiency have been leading the league on the other end of the floor. Key players like Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Hartenstein are out, but the core of the team is still available.
On the Warriors side, injuries and roster issues have disrupted their rhythm. Steph Curry is out for this game, while Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green are questionable. Golden State’s ability to generate offense, especially against a defense as disciplined and long as Oklahoma City’s, will be severely challenged.
OKC comes into this game with just one loss on the season so far. They are on pace to win close to 80 games this year. And while that pace may not be sustainable, it will clearly take a Herculean effort from any team to beat the Thunder this year.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- In their only meeting so far this season, Oklahoma City defeated Golden State 126-102 in Oklahoma City.
- These teams are both 10-11 against the spread so far this year.
- The Warriors have gone over the total in 13 of their first 21 games.
- OKC has gone over the total 11 times in their first 21 outings.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop to Watch |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Over 30.5 Points |
| Chet Holmgren | Over 9.5 Rebounds |
| Jalen Williams | Over 18.5 Points |
Thunder vs Warriors Model Projection
Score Projection: Thunder 125 – Warriors 109
Win Probability: Thunder 82%, Warriors 18%
Final Thoughts
I’m going to lay the points with the Thunder on the road in this matchup. If the Warriors were healthy, I think they could very well upset the Thunder and hand them their second loss of the season. But without Curry to help them in this game, I think this one has the potential to get lopsided in a hurry. Look for OKC to move to 20 games above .500 as the defending champs will continue to showcase the fact that they are far and away the best team in the NBA.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
