The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will meet on Friday night in a matchup that will be very important to both of these Southeast Division teams. Both teams enter this contest struggling to find consistent success, and their post-Christmas showdown in Atlanta could be a turning point as we head toward the new year. Which of these teams will end their current losing streak? Continue reading to get my Heat vs Hawks prediction.
Our Heat vs Hawks Pick
Pick: | Hawks -2.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
- Date & Time: Friday, December 26, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
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Key Storylines
- The Heat are mired in a slump, having lost three consecutive games and eight of their last 10 overall. Their offensive output has been inconsistent and injuries continue to hamper their rotation depth. Norman Powell has stepped up as Miami’s leading scorer at 23.7 points per game while Bam Adebayo has been productive with 18.0 PPG, yet the team’s overall cohesion has been lacking. Tyler Herro is out with a toe injury, and both Nikola Jovic and Pelle Larsson are unlikely to play as well. Adebayo’s status remains day-to-day with back soreness.
- Atlanta enters on a four-game losing skid and has struggled defensively. Trae Young is back from injury and building back his conditioning, contributing 19.3 points and 9.1 assists per game. Jalen Johnson has been a standout as a multi-category performer, nearing triple-double numbers with 23.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 8.3 APG. However, the absence of rim protection with Kristaps Porzingis out and N’Faly Dante lost for the season has strained Atlanta’s interior defense. Hawks rotation pieces such as Dyson Daniels and Mouhamed Gueye are day-to-day. Both teams badly need a win to avoid sinking further in the Eastern Conference standings.
- This is the first meeting of the season between these clubs. Last year, they split their games. Miami’s most recent win over Atlanta by a wide margin came in February of 2025, when Miami built a double-digit advantage on the way to a road victory. However, current form favors Atlanta at home, and the Hawks are priced as favorites even with their own struggles to overcome.
Betting Trends
- The Heat are 16-14 against the spread this season.
- Atlanta is 14-17 against the spread for the year.
- Miami has gone under the total in 16 of their 30 games.
- The Hawks have gone over the total in 18 of their 31 games.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Trae Young | Under 21.5 Points |
Jalen Johnson | Over 25.5 Points |
Norman Powell | Over 25.5 Points |
Andrew Wiggins | Under 16.5 Points |
Heat vs Hawks Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami Heat 117 – Atlanta Hawks 121
Win Probability: Miami Heat 42%, Atlanta Hawks 58%
Final Thoughts
I'll go with the Hawks to win this game and cover the spread on their home floor on Friday night. Both of these teams are playing poorly, but Atlanta should have the upper hand at home against a Heat team that is just 5-10 on the road. Expect Atlanta to come away with the win in one of the early games on the Friday NBA schedule.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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