The Golden State Warriors travel to Houston on Thursday night for a Western Conference meeting with the Rockets at Toyota Center. These teams have developed a renewed rivalry in recent seasons, and the current standings make this meeting even more meaningful. Houston enters the contest firmly in the playoff picture near the top of the conference, while Golden State is fighting to hold position in the middle of the Western standings. Here, I take a closer look at Warriors vs Rockets and make my pick in the betting markets.
Our Warriors vs Rockets Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 5, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
Houston enters this game with one of the strongest home records in the Western Conference. The Rockets have turned Toyota Center into a difficult stop for visiting teams, compiling a 20-7 home mark. Their balanced roster and efficient offense have helped them climb near the top of the standings.
Golden State arrives in Houston needing a strong showing after dropping multiple recent games. The Warriors remain competitive thanks to their experienced core and elite perimeter shooting, yet their road results have been uneven this season with a 12-17 record away from home. Injuries to players like Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry this year have really held the Warriors back in a big way.
Another storyline centers on pace. The Warriors rely heavily on three-point shooting and ball movement, while Houston prefers a more controlled tempo built around efficient half-court scoring and rebounding. Whichever team dictates that rhythm could control the outcome.
Key Players
Houston Rockets
- Kevin Durant leads Houston with roughly 26.3 points per game while adding over 5 rebounds and about 4 assists. His ability to score at every level makes him the focal point of the Rockets’ offense and a difficult matchup for any defense.
- Alperen Sengun anchors the interior with about 9.2 rebounds and more than 6 assists per game while contributing steady scoring. His passing from the post gives Houston a unique offensive dimension.
- Amen Thompson brings athleticism and perimeter defense. His ability to push the pace and attack the rim often energizes Houston’s offense.
Golden State Warriors
- Draymond Green remains the defensive anchor and emotional leader of the Warriors. He averages over 5 rebounds and more than 5 assists while directing the team’s defensive rotations.
- Brandin Podziemski provides backcourt depth and playmaking, helping ease pressure on his teammates and adding scoring from the perimeter. With Curry still out, Podziemski is even more important than usual right now.
Stat Comparison
| Team | Points per game | Points allowed per game | Team Field Goal % | Rebounds per game | Assists per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 115.3 | 114.1 | 46% | 42.8 | 29.2 |
| Rockets | 114.7 | 109.4 | 47% | 48.4 | 24.8 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Houston won the previous meeting this season by a score of 104-100.
- Golden State is 2-7 against the spread in its last 9 games.
- Houston is 4-2 against the spread in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone over in 6 of Golden State’s last 8 games.
- The total has gone under in 11 of Houston’s last 13 home games.
Warriors vs Rockets Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
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