The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night, with both groups trending in different directions. Phoenix has climbed back into strong Western Conference positioning behind one of the league’s stingiest defenses, while Dallas has been searching for consistency on the road. Here, I break down this Western Conference matchup and give you my Mavericks vs Suns prediction below.
Our Mavericks vs Suns Pick
Pick: Phoenix Suns -8.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 2/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
- Date & Time: Tuesday, February 10, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
Key Storylines
- Form and records: Dallas is 19-33 overall and 5-16 away. Phoenix is 31-22 overall and 17-9 at home. The Suns have worked their way into seventh place in the Western Conference and could climb out of the play-in tournament spots if they can string some wins together. Dallas is in 12th place in the West and looks like they are not going to be a playoff team unless they turn things around.
- Injuries and returns: Kyrie Irving remains sidelined for Dallas until at least late February. Dereck Lively II is done for the season. Phoenix has Grayson Allen out through the break with a knee sprain, but Devin Booker and Jalen Green are back in action.
- Star guards and volume scoring: Booker is averaging 25.3 points and 6.3 assists per game, while rookie Cooper Flagg has surged to 20.3 points per game to lead a Mavs team that has lost seven straight games coming into this contest.
- Suns Form: Phoenix has lost three of its last four games. They have lost three straight home games to the 76ers, Warriors, and Clippers and will try to end that streak here.
- Schedule and rest: Both clubs are on 2 days rest after weekend games. Phoenix opens a back-to-back set with Oklahoma City up next, which could influence rotation minutes late if they secure a cushion. Dallas has a day off on Wednesday before facing the Lakers on Thursday.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Phoenix won the most recent meeting 123-114 on November 12, 2025 in Dallas.
- Phoenix is an NBA-best 34-19 against the spread this season.
- Dallas enters this contest with a record of 23-29 against the spread for the season
- The under is 32-21 in Suns games so far this year.
- The under is 29-23 in Mavericks games entering Tuesday's action.
Mavericks vs Suns Model Projection
Score Projection: Mavericks 107 – Suns 117
Win Probability: Mavericks 32%, Suns 68%
Final Thoughts
Phoenix’s edge rests on three pillars: their defense, their home form, and the return of Booker to stabilize late-clock possessions. Dallas can absolutely hang if Flagg gets to the rim often, P.J. Washington is productive, and the Mavericks win on the glass. But their away record and injury absences keep their path to victory narrow. I am going to lay the points with Phoenix in this contest with all of that in mind.
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