Updated September 12, 2026
Tim Elliott and Edgar Chairez meet Saturday, September 12, at Noche UFC in Glendale, Arizona, in a flyweight matchup pairing one of the division’s most experienced wrestlers against a younger submission threat on the best run of his UFC career. Elliott enters at 39 years old after dropping a unanimous decision to Steve Erceg in May, while the 30-year-old Chairez has won 3 straight, most recently submitting Bruno Silva with a rear-naked choke in the opening round on June 6. Chairez is currently priced around 67¢ on Polymarket, leaving Elliott near 34¢.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Elliott’s wrestling makes him dangerous at this price, but the market appears to give too little weight to the age gap, Chairez’s 5-inch reach advantage, Elliott’s recent defensive issues on the feet, and Chairez’s growing ability to punish grappling exchanges with submissions.”
Chairez Underrated In the Market
Polymarket has Chairez trading around 67¢, which represents a 67% implied probability. My projection lands at 72%, producing a 5% model edge. That is enough separation to make Chairez the preferred prediction, though the price becomes less attractive above roughly 69¢.
Similar Game Plans Should Benefit Chairez
The reason I still land above the market on Chairez is that Elliott's preferred route also sends him directly into one of his opponent's best areas. Chairez has 9 submission wins in 14 professional victories and averages 1.31 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He recently submitted both CJ Vergara and Bruno Silva in the first round. Elliott can win wrestling exchanges without necessarily being safe inside them, and he has already suffered 6 submission defeats during his career.
Recommended Prediction:
Chairez to Win
Current Market Price:
67¢
Model Win Probability:
72%
Market-Implied Probability:
67%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
69¢
Model Trade Confidence:
80/100
Category | Tim Elliott | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
Age | 39 | 30 |
Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
Reach | 66" | 71" |
Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
Record | 22-14-1 | 14-6 |
Chairez enters this matchup with 3 consecutive UFC victories. He submitted CJ Vergara by face crank in March 2025, edged Felipe Bunes by split decision in February 2026, and then finished Bruno Silva by rear-naked choke at 4:13 of the first round in June. His previous defeat came against Joshua Van by unanimous decision at UFC 306 in September 2024. But it's hard to fault Chairez for that given how well Van has performed in UFC since then.
Elliott's recent results have been less straightforward. He submitted Sumudaerji in the first round in December 2023, then returned from a long absence to submit former title challenger Kai Asakura in the second round in August 2025. His winning run ended against Steve Erceg on May 2, 2026, when Erceg took a unanimous decision. Elliott absorbed 136 significant strikes in that fight, with Erceg landing 53% of his attempts, an important concern against a younger opponent with substantially more reach.
Elliott has always fought differently from the standard position-first wrestler. His movement can be awkward, his entries come from unusual angles, and he is comfortable creating scrambles rather than holding one position for an entire round. His career numbers reflect that approach. He lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute while averaging 3.61 takedowns and 1.06 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His 59% takedown defense also gives him a solid defensive foundation if Chairez attempts to reverse positions.
Chairez is more dangerous as a finisher than his basic striking totals would lead you to believe. He lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.75, so extended striking exchanges are not always clean for him. His real strength is capitalizing when opponents expose their neck or back. Of his 14 professional wins, 9 have come by submission. His recent rear-naked choke over Silva showed how quickly he can convert a favorable grappling position into a finish.
Elliott's clearest route to a win is wrestling. Chairez's takedown defense has hovered around 39%, an obvious opening for a fighter attempting more than 3 takedowns per 15 minutes. Elliott can force Chairez backward, initiate clinches, and make the younger fighter work through repeated changes of position. If Elliott avoids putting his neck in danger, he has a real chance to accumulate enough control time to make the scorecards close.
The problem is what happens between those successful takedowns. Chairez owns the longer reach, carries a much higher finishing threat from submission positions, and is 9 years younger. Elliott's tendency to create disorder can be productive against opponents who want a clean technical fight, but Chairez is comfortable operating in those same transitional positions. A failed shot, exposed neck, or loose scramble could give Chairez exactly the opening he needs.
Elliott has repeatedly produced strong performances when counted out. Still, Chairez's current form, physical advantages, and submission game make him the fighter I trust more across the full 15 minutes. At approximately 67¢, the market has identified the correct favorite but has not moved quite far enough. My 72% estimate gives Chairez a 5% edge and makes him my preferred prediction for Noche UFC.