Updated September 12, 2026
Ignacio Bahamondes and Muslim Salikhov meet Saturday, September 12, 2026, on the preliminary card of Noche UFC in Glendale, Arizona. The matchup brings together 2 very different strikers. Bahamondes is the younger, much taller volume striker, while Salikhov remains a dangerous counter fighter whose timing and knockout power can punish careless entries. Polymarket currently makes Bahamondes a clear favorite at 82¢, compared with 19¢ for Salikhov, and the gap is understandable given the 13-year age difference and the physical advantages held by the Chilean.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The current price accounts for Bahamondes' recent losses but does not fully account for his 5.5-inch reach advantage, 13-year age advantage, much higher striking output, and Salikhov's increasing vulnerability to fast, long-range strikers.”
Bahamondes Has the Advantage
At 82¢, Bahamondes needs to win more than 82% of the time for the prediction to have positive expected value. My estimate places him at 87%, creating a 5% model edge. That is enough separation to make the favorite playable, although there is little reason to chase the price much higher than 84¢.
Market Activity Update
Salikhov's one-shot finishing ability places a natural ceiling on how heavily Bahamondes should be priced. Polymarket has generated more than $21,000 in trading volume on the matchup, so this is already a reasonably active market rather than a thin early listing.
Recommended Prediction:
Bahamondes to Win
Current Market Price:
82¢
Model Win Probability:
87%
Market-Implied Probability:
82%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
84¢
Model Trade Confidence:
77/100
Fighter | Age | Height | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ignacio Bahamondes | 29 | 6'3" | 75" | Orthodox | 17-7 |
Muslim Salikhov | 42 | 5'11" | 70" | Orthodox | 22-6 |
Bahamondes' record shows 2 straight losses, but the quality of opposition has been a factor in his recent struggles. Fiziev remains an elite technical striker, while Musayev followed his March win over Bahamondes by stopping Ludovít Klein in August. Bahamondes went all 3 rounds with Musayev before losing on the scorecards, so his recent form is more encouraging than an 0-2 stretch might lead you to believe. Prior to those defeats, Bahamondes finished 3 straight opponents, including a first-round triangle choke against Turner.
Salikhov's recent results are far more volatile. He produced first-round knockouts of Song and Leal, showing that his famed striking timing remains dangerous well into his 40s. His next appearance went the other direction, however, as Medić dropped him with a straight left and finished the fight after only 63 seconds. Salikhov has now suffered several knockout defeats during the later portion of his UFC career, including stoppages against Randy Brown and Li Jingliang.
Bahamondes is built around output and range. His statistics credit him with 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.07. He also averages 0.76 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Nearly 89% of his recorded significant strikes have come while standing, which accurately reflects a fighter who prefers to operate in open space and let his length do the work.
Salikhov operates at a much lower rate. His current statistics list him at 3.37 significant strikes landed per minute and 2.96 absorbed, with 49% striking accuracy and 62% significant-strike defense. Those numbers describe his approach well. He is generally more selective than Bahamondes and prefers clean counters over extended combinations. His career record includes 15 knockout wins, so Bahamondes cannot simply walk forward without regard for what is coming back.
Neither fighter is likely to build his primary game plan around repeated takedowns. Bahamondes averages essentially no offensive takedowns, though he has shown submission skill when opportunities appear. Salikhov averages 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes with 32% accuracy and owns 72% takedown defense. Bahamondes' greatest grappling success recently was the triangle choke that finished Turner, evidence that he can capitalize if Salikhov makes a mistake during a scramble.
The bigger defensive question concerns Bahamondes' willingness to exchange. His high-output style also leads to him absorbing more than 4 significant strikes per minute. Against most opponents, that is an acceptable trade. Against Salikhov, it creates the clearest route to an upset because the Russian remains capable of ending a fight with one accurate counter.
The first several minutes should carry the greatest danger for Bahamondes. Salikhov has 15 first-round finishes on his professional record, and his wins over Song and Leal showed that his finishing ability has not disappeared. Bahamondes should therefore avoid turning the opening round into a stationary kickboxing exchange. Long straight punches, front kicks and lateral movement give him safer ways to pile up offense.
As the fight develops, Bahamondes' advantages should become harder for Salikhov to solve. A 5.5-inch reach difference is significant in a matchup where both men want to strike, and a 13-year age gap matters even more when the older fighter's style depends heavily on timing and reactions. Bahamondes can also afford to work at a higher rate, forcing Salikhov to either surrender minutes or take greater risks closing distance.
My projection gives Bahamondes an 87% win probability, making his 82¢ Polymarket price a worthwhile prediction up to roughly 84¢. The most likely result is a Bahamondes victory built on sustained striking volume, with a late stoppage or clear decision both realistic outcomes.