Updated September 12, 2026
Drakkar Klose returns after more than a year away from competition to face unbeaten prospect Tommy Gantt in a lightweight preliminary bout at Noche UFC on Saturday, September 12, 2026, at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. Klose enters at 16-3-1 after defeating Edson Barboza by unanimous decision in August 2025, while Gantt is 12-0 and coming off a second-round stoppage of Artur Minev in his UFC debut.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Klose's UFC experience appears to be keeping Gantt's price below my projection, but Gantt's 6.5-inch reach advantage, wrestling output, finishing ability, and age advantage give him several reliable paths to control the fight.”
Gantt Underpriced As a Favorite?
Gantt is still working with a tiny UFC sample, and Klose is far more accomplished than the opponents Gantt faced before reaching this level. That keeps my number at 82% rather than pushing it into the upper 80s. At the current 78¢ price, however, there is still a 4% gap between the prediction market and my estimate.
Gantt's Skillset a Major Advantage
Klose has built a good UFC career by being physically difficult to control, working effectively in close range, and maintaining a steady pace over 15 minutes. Gantt is unusually equipped to challenge those strengths. He stands 2 inches taller, owns a 6.5-inch reach advantage, and showed relentless wrestling in his UFC debut, completing 6 of 17 takedowns and controlling Artur Minev for more than 5 minutes before earning the second-round stoppage.
Recommended Prediction:
Gantt to Win
Current Market Price:
78¢
Model Win Probability:
82%
Market-Implied Probability:
78%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
80¢
Model Trade Confidence:
72/100
Fighter | Age | Height | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drakkar Klose | 38 | 5'9" | 70" | Orthodox | 16-3-1 |
Tommy Gantt | 33 | 5'11" | 76.5" | Orthodox | 12-0 |
Klose has won 5 of his past 6 fights, with the lone defeat coming against Joel Alvarez by first-round knockout in December 2024. His wins during that stretch include Rafa Garcia, Joe Solecki, Joaquim Silva, and Barboza. Klose defeated Barboza by unanimous decision at UFC 319 on August 16, 2025, landing 53 significant strikes across 3 rounds while absorbing 71. He later revealed that he tore his shoulder during the second round, leading to surgery and another lengthy absence.
Gantt's rise has been much faster. He remains unbeaten at 12-0 with 6 knockout victories and 5 submissions. He earned his UFC opportunity by submitting Adam Livingston with a first-round guillotine on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2025. His UFC debut followed on May 16, 2026, when he stopped Artur Minev with strikes at 2:51 of the second round. Gantt landed 28 of 38 significant strikes and completed 6 takedowns in that performance.
Klose is far more experienced against UFC-level competition. He lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy and absorbs 3.65 per minute. His 69% takedown defense will be one of the most important numbers in this matchup because Gantt is unlikely to spend 15 minutes willingly trading combinations with him. Klose has also averaged 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him enough wrestling of his own to make clinch exchanges competitive.
Klose has openly indicated that he wants a physical fight. That approach makes sense. Giving Gantt clean entries from open space would allow the younger fighter to use his reach and wrestling explosiveness. Klose is more likely to crowd him, work inside, and force Gantt to wrestle through resistance rather than simply shooting underneath long-range strikes. The risk is that those same close-range positions are exactly where Gantt can turn body locks and clinches into takedown attempts.
The most striking number from Gantt's UFC debut was his takedown frequency. He attempted 17 takedowns in less than 8 minutes against Minev, completing 6. That translates to more than 11 takedowns landed per 15 minutes through an extremely small UFC sample. The number will decline as he faces better competition, but it illustrates how committed he is to repeatedly attacking wrestling positions.
His offense is also more developed than that of a pure wrestler. Gantt has finished 11 of his 12 professional victories, with 6 knockouts and 5 submissions. His guillotine has been particularly productive, accounting for several submission victories. That means opponents cannot casually expose their neck while trying to stand from takedowns. Klose has never been submitted professionally, so forcing that outcome would be difficult, but Gantt can use submission threats to maintain control and create opportunities.
Klose's best route is to survive Gantt's initial wrestling pressure, force extended striking exchanges, and make the less experienced fighter solve problems late in the second and third rounds. Klose has spent years facing seasoned UFC lightweights and has shown that he can follow a tactical plan over a full 15 minutes. If Gantt's takedown efficiency drops and the fight becomes a prolonged kickboxing contest, the price on Klose begins to look much more dangerous for Gantt supporters.
The physical matchup still favors Gantt. Klose gives up 6.5 inches of reach and 5 years of age, and he is coming back after shoulder surgery. Those factors matter against an opponent whose main objective will be grabbing, driving, and forcing prolonged wrestling exchanges. Gantt does not need spectacular efficiency if he can keep making Klose defend.
Klose is clearly the largest test of Gantt's professional career, which prevents this from being treated as a routine favorite prediction. Still, the younger fighter has enough advantages in size, wrestling activity, and finishing to justify a win probability slightly above the prediction market. My model makes Gantt an 82% winner compared with the current Polymarket price near 78%, leaving a 4% edge and making Gantt my preferred position at 78¢ or better.