Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji Prediction & Preview - 8/29/2026
Updated August 28, 2026
Updated August 28, 2026
Alex Perez and Sumudaerji will settle unfinished business in a flyweight rematch at UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Their first meeting on May 30 ended in a second-round no contest after Sumudaerji accidentally landed a low kick that left Perez unable to continue. The result was inconclusive, but the action before the stoppage was revealing. Here, we look back at that action and make our prediction for this matchup.
Polymarket currently prices Sumudaerji at 66¢, an implied probability of 66%, while Perez is available at 35¢. About $9,500 has been traded at the time of writing.
Fighter | Age | Height | Reach | Stance | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Perez | 34 | 5-foot-6 | 65.5 inches | Orthodox | 26-10-0, 1 NC |
Sumudaerji | 30 | 5-foot-8 | 72 inches | Southpaw | 19-7-0, 1 NC |
Perez remains a dangerous and experienced flyweight despite his recent record. The former title challenger has faced a much stronger level of UFC opposition than Sumudaerji, including Alexandre Pantoja, Deiveson Figueiredo, Muhammad Mokaev, and Tatsuro Taira. His career UFC statistics show 4.22 significant strikes landed per minute, 3.24 absorbed and a 58% striking defense rate. He also averages 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes.
That balanced skill set gives Perez more possible routes to victory than a typical opponent facing Sumudaerji. He can attack the legs, close distance behind combinations, and turn striking exchanges into clinch or wrestling sequences. Perez has 7 professional submission victories, which is important against an opponent whose 7 career losses include 6 submissions.
There are reasons to question whether Perez can consistently reach that favorable grappling position, however. He failed on both of his takedown attempts in the first meeting. Sumudaerji completed 1 of his own, produced 1:11 of control time, and forced Perez to work from poor positions. Perez attempted a submission, but the sequence did not produce any sustained control.
Sumudaerji enters with a 19-7 record and a three-fight winning streak before the no contest. His recent victories over Mitch Raposo, Kevin Borjas, and Jesus Aguilar all came by decision, showing improved patience after earlier losses to Matt Schnell, Tim Elliott, and Charles Johnson. While 13 of his 19 victories have come by knockout, he has become more willing to manage distance and collect rounds rather than force an early finish attempt.
The statistical matchup on the feet favors Sumudaerji. He lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy while absorbing only 2.29. His 63% striking defense also exceeds Perez’s 58%. More importantly, his 72-inch reach gives him a major 7-inch advantage.
That difference was visible in May. Sumudaerji landed 26 of 53 significant strikes for 49% accuracy, while Perez connected on only 9 of 45 for 20%. Sumudaerji landed 15 significant head strikes, scored a knockdown and held a 20-8 advantage in significant distance strikes. Perez struggled to enter safely and often fell short with his punches.
Perez can make this closer by wrestling early, but Sumudaerji should again win the cleaner striking exchanges. My prediction is Sumudaerji by decision after using his reach, southpaw counters, and defensive movement to control most of the fight.
