The knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic brings a North American rivalry to Houston as the United States faces Canada in a quarterfinal matchup on Friday night. Team USA entered the tournament as one of the clear favorites to win the championship, but the path to this point has been anything but smooth. The Americans advanced from pool play with a 3-1 record after an upset loss to Italy created a tense finish in their group. Canada arrives with confidence after reaching the quarterfinal round for the first time in tournament history. Here, I break down this contest and make my USA vs Canada prediction.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: USA vs Canada
- Date & Time: Friday, March 13, 8:00 PM
- Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs Michael Soroka
- Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
To get this matchup right after the Winter Olympics is a great story. The United States beat Canada in the gold medal game in both men’s and women’s hockey at the Olympics. Canada will try to avenge their countrymen for those results, while the US will try to get another win over their neighbors (or neighbours, depending on where you are located) to the North.
Pitching matchup
We are expecting to see Logan Webb on the bump for the US and Michael Soroka on the hill for Canada. Webb has been a high-level pitcher with the San Francisco Giants, and he will try to stabilize things for a pitching staff that has been underwhelming at times for the Americans at this tournament. He has an advantage over Soroka going into this game, but both are MLB-caliber arms and anything can happen here.
Key Players
The American lineup features several elite hitters led by Aaron Judge, one of the most dangerous power bats in the sport. Judge anchors a deep order that also includes stars such as Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts, giving the United States constant home run potential. Canada leans on a group of major league hitters led by the Naylor brothers. Bo Naylor delivered a clutch extra-base hit during Canada’s victory over Cuba that helped secure the quarterfinal berth.
USA vs Canada Pick and Model Projection
- Score Projection: USA 7 – Canada 4 ATS PRO
- Pick: Canada +4.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: USA 67%, Canada 33% ATS PRO
The United States still brings the deepest roster remaining in the tournament, even after a shaky moment in pool play. The American lineup is capable of producing offense in bunches, and that kind of firepower can change the game quickly in a single-elimination setting. But I think we could be in for a closer game than the betting line would suggest.
Canada deserves credit for reaching this stage and has already proven it can compete against strong teams. Meanwhile, I wasn’t all that impressed with the level of play from the Americans during pool play, and they need to prove themselves again in this contest. I’ll take the Canadians to cover the runline in this contest, even though I expect Team USA to advance to set up a huge matchup with the Dominican Republic in the semifinals.
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