Updated September 12, 2026
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs return to Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon with very different reasons to view this game as important. Chicago improved to 82-66 by routing Pittsburgh 12-2 in Friday’s series opener, while the Pirates fell back to .500 at 74-74 after entering the series on a 4-game winning streak. The pitching matchup changes the feel of Saturday’s game, with Paul Skenes scheduled for Pittsburgh against Clay Holmes for Chicago. Skenes is coming off 5 1/3 scoreless innings, while Holmes is trying to recover from his roughest outing of his season.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Polymarket is giving nearly equal weight to both clubs because Pittsburgh has the stronger starting pitcher on Saturday. That does not fully account for Chicago’s sizable advantage at the plate, its home-field edge, and a Cubs lineup that just produced 16 hits against Pittsburgh. Chicago’s season-long run production provides enough run support to offset much of the gap between Skenes and Holmes.”
A Near Pick 'Em Price
Polymarket currently has Chicago around 50.5¢, translating to an implied probability of approximately 50.5%. Pittsburgh is sitting near 50¢. At those prices, this is effectively being treated as a coin flip. My projection is less aggressive than some of the conventional baseball pricing available elsewhere, but it still puts Chicago at 54.5%. That leaves a 4.0% advantage at the current Polymarket price.
Chicago's Offense vs Skenes
Skenes is the biggest argument against Chicago. His 3.83 ERA does not tell the entire story, as his level of performance has been stronger at points this season, and he has thrown scoreless outings in 2 of his last 3 starts. Still, the Cubs have been the considerably better offensive club across the full season. Chicago had scored 780 runs through Thursday compared with Pittsburgh’s 707, and Friday widened that gap further.
Recommended Prediction:
Cubs to Win
Current Market Price:
50.5¢
Model Win Probability:
54.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
50.5%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
52.5¢
Model Trade Confidence:
71/100
Pittsburgh could hardly ask for a better pitcher to send out after Friday’s lopsided defeat. Skenes enters Saturday at 10-11 with a 3.83 ERA and 181 strikeouts. His most recent outing was encouraging, with 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Angels on September 6, allowing 4 hits and 1 walk.
There has been some inconsistency from Skenes this year, though. Skenes allowed 5 earned runs across 4 2/3 innings against San Francisco immediately before that Angels start. He had been excellent in his previous outing against San Diego, throwing 6 scoreless innings in a 1-0 Pittsburgh victory. Over those 3 starts, the results have swung sharply from dominant to vulnerable and back again.
Chicago has a much more dangerous lineup than Los Angeles. The Cubs showed their depth Friday, collecting 16 hits and scoring 12 runs. Alex Bregman went deep for his 25th home run, Michael Busch drove in 3 runs, and Seiya Suzuki had 3 hits and scored 3 times. Skenes will need to limit traffic on the bases early because Chicago can string together quality plate appearances throughout the order.
Holmes enters at 6-7 with a 2.83 ERA, but that figure jumped dramatically in his latest start. Miami scored 8 runs against him in 4 1/3 innings on September 6. Before that outing, his ERA stood at 2.09, and he had recently thrown 6 scoreless innings against Milwaukee with 8 strikeouts.
That makes Saturday an interesting test. Was the Miami start a one-game failure, or did it expose an issue Pittsburgh can attack?
The Pirates had been playing some of their best baseball before Friday. They swept the White Sox and had won 4 straight, including a 2-0 victory Thursday in which Oneil Cruz went 3-for-4 with a home run and drove in both Pittsburgh runs. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games despite Friday’s defeat.
Cruz is particularly important against Holmes. Pittsburgh does not have Chicago’s depth of run production, so its best path is likely to create damage with the top portion of the order rather than count on sustained rallies from top to bottom.
Chicago's offensive advantage is the central reason my projection lands on the Cubs despite Skenes getting the start for Pittsburgh.
The Cubs entered Friday having scored 780 runs in 147 games, one of the stronger totals in the National League, then added another 12 runs in the series opener. Chicago also hit 62 home runs during August, the highest single-month total in National League history.
There is major power throughout the group. Bregman has reached 25 home runs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong hit his 40th homer of the season on September 6. Busch and Suzuki add further depth, making it difficult for a starter to work around one dangerous hitter without creating another problem immediately afterward.
The Pirates recently lost All-Star pitcher Braxton Ashcraft to the 15-day injured list because of right arm discomfort. Ashcraft had gone 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA, making his absence significant for Pittsburgh's rotation even though it does not directly alter Saturday’s Skenes start.
There was another concern Friday when Esmerlyn Valdez left the game because of left hamstring discomfort while running to first base. His status bears watching before lineups are released Saturday.
Pittsburgh did receive some positive injury news with Ryan O'Hearn returning from the injured list. O'Hearn had been sidelined by a strained left quadriceps and is batting .269 with 17 home runs and 69 RBIs this season. He appeared off the bench Friday and finished 0-for-2.
Chicago continues to deal with several absences of its own, including shortstop Dansby Swanson, while pitchers Phil Maton and Ben Brown are also on the injured list.
Friday’s 12-2 result should not be viewed as a forecast for Saturday. Pittsburgh upgrades dramatically from a bullpen-oriented pitching setup to Skenes, and that alone makes a much closer game likely.
The question is whether that upgrade is enough to make the teams true equals. My answer is no. Chicago is 82-66, owns the stronger offense, plays this one at Wrigley Field, and sends out a starter who carried a 2.09 ERA before one disastrous outing inflated his season number to 2.83. Pittsburgh can absolutely win behind Skenes, but a Polymarket price around 50.5¢ on Chicago gives too little credit to everything they have done this season.
