Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Predictions & Pricing - 9/18/2026
Updated September 18, 2026
Phillies vs Mets Full Game Pricing
Updated September 18, 2026
Philadelphia and New York return to Citi Field on Friday night after the Phillies opened the series with a 3-0 win. Philadelphia enters at 85-68, while New York has fallen to 69-84 after 5 consecutive losses. The power market is especially interesting because the Mets are turning to left-hander Zac Thornton, while the Phillies have yet to decide on a starter. As a result, we could see some offensive fireworks from both teams in this game.
Schwarber Can Hit Lefties
The lefty-lefty pairing may create an automatic discount on Kyle Schwarber, but his actual 2026 production against left-handed pitching does not support a meaningful downgrade. He has 15 home runs and a .912 OPS in 242 plate appearances against lefties, while Thornton has allowed 12 home runs in 73 1/3 innings.
Pricing Is Important
The 26¢ reference price translates to a 26% implied probability. My number comes in at 29%, creating a 3% gap. That is enough separation to make Schwarber my preferred home run position, but price discipline matters with a low-frequency event such as a home run. At 27¢, the gap falls to 2%, which is about as thin as I would want to go. Anything above that removes too much of the value.
Recommended Prediction:
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a HR
Current Market Price:
26¢
Model Win Probability:
29%
Market-Implied Probability:
26%
Model Edge:
3%
Buy Up To:
27¢
Model Trade Confidence:
60/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Schwarber might be an obvious choice in the home run market, but there is a reason for that. He leads the league in home runs and his price is slightly more favorable than usual against a lefty, so we'll back him this time around.”
The obvious argument against Schwarber is that Thornton throws left-handed. Normally, that is a legitimate reason to reduce expectations for a left-handed power hitter, and did help us land on the Mets with our Phillies vs Mets prediction for tonight. But Schwarber has made that assumption much less useful in 2026.
He has gone deep 15 times in 242 plate appearances against lefties, batting .266 with a .380 on-base percentage, .532 slugging percentage and .912 OPS. For comparison, he has a .841 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. His raw home run rate against lefties works out to roughly one every 16 plate appearances, so the handedness of Friday's starter should not be treated as a major negative.
That is one of the biggest reasons my 29% projection sits above the Polymarket probability. Schwarber is being evaluated here as the hitter he has actually been against lefties in 2026, rather than receiving a large generic platoon penalty.
Thornton relies on his cutter more than any other pitch. Statcast tracking has his cutter around 37% usage, followed by a four-seam fastball around 25%, a sweeper around 15%, and a sinker around 11%. His cutter averages roughly 88 mph, while the two fastball variations sit around 92 mph.
That pitch selection is important for Schwarber. Schwarber has an .816 slugging percentage against cutters, along with a .510 wOBA. He has also done serious damage against sinkers, with a .694 slugging percentage against that pitch type. Thornton cannot simply lean on his most frequently used offering and assume the pitch shape will neutralize Philadelphia's biggest power threat.
Thornton has still pitched well overall, carrying a 3.44 ERA into Friday. Yet the home run total is less impressive than the ERA: 12 allowed across 73 1/3 innings. For an HR-specific prediction, that distinction matters more than his overall run prevention.
There are legitimate reasons this is a 29% projection rather than anything close to a coin flip. Thornton is coming off an excellent outing against the Yankees. He worked 7 innings, allowed 2 earned runs on 5 hits and a walk, and needed only 81 pitches. His fastball also reached 96 mph, several miles per hour above his season average. If that extra velocity carries into Friday and his cutter command remains sharp, Schwarber could have fewer favorable pitches to drive.
There is also history between Thornton and this Philadelphia lineup. In his Citi Field debut on June 26, he held the Phillies to 1 run over 6 innings. That is a reminder that a strong overall power setup does not mean Thornton is an easy assignment.
Schwarber's swing-and-miss numbers add another path to failure. Even against left-handers, he has struck out 67 times in 242 plate appearances this season, a rate of about 27.7%. A home run position needs balls in the air, and a couple of strikeouts can quickly reduce a hitter from 4 or 5 opportunities to only 2 or 3 useful chances.
New York's side of the home run board should not be ignored, although Philadelphia's pitching situation was still undecided in MLB's official Friday probables early in the morning. The series rotation plan points to Alan Rangel filling in for the injured Jesús Luzardo, but Philadelphia's starter is still listed as TBD at the time of publication.
If Rangel is confirmed, Mets hitters become much more interesting. He has a 5.88 ERA with 4 home runs allowed in only 26 innings this season, and New York scored 5 runs against him across 4 innings in July. That helps explain why the game grades so well for home runs. Still, uncertainty surrounding Philadelphia's official starter makes those New York player contracts harder to price confidently this early in the day.
Schwarber does not carry that same uncertainty. Thornton is confirmed for New York, the Polymarket contract is already listed, and Schwarber's numbers give us several reasons to push his probability above a 26¢ price. At a 29% model probability, Yes is the preferred side as long as the live Polymarket cost remains 27¢ or lower.
