Updated September 14, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers open a 4-game set in Cincinnati on Monday with a chance to reset after a frustrating weekend in Miami. Los Angeles is 90-59 after dropping 2 straight to the Marlins, while Cincinnati is 70-79 after ending a 5-game skid with a 4-3 win over Milwaukee on Sunday. The clubs saw plenty of each other last week, and the Dodgers swept 3 games at Dodger Stadium by scores of 6-3, 3-2, and 14-1. Monday brings a repeat of the pitching pairing from the middle game of that series, with Tarik Skubal facing Nick Lodolo.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The current price appears to lean too heavily on Los Angeles losing its last 2 games and on the absence of Shohei Ohtani. The starting pitching matchup, Cincinnati’s recent run prevention issues, and the Dodgers’ superior season-long offensive numbers create a better chance of a multi-run Los Angeles win than the 54% price suggests.”
Projections Favor LA By 2+ Runs
Polymarket is pricing Los Angeles to win by more than 1.5 runs at roughly 54¢, an implied probability of 54%. My projection lands at 59.5%, which creates a 5.5% edge. That is enough separation to make Dodgers -1.5 the preferred side at the current number, though the value becomes less attractive once the price moves above 56¢.
Offensive and Defensive Advantages
Los Angeles has already shown it can produce against this Cincinnati staff without its full lineup. The Dodgers scored 23 runs in the 3-game sweep last week, including 14 in the finale, and they enter Monday with one of the stronger offensive lineups in baseball. The biggest reason for the edge, though, is Skubal. A starter capable of working deep into the game and limiting baserunners gives Los Angeles a strong path to separating by 2 or more runs.
Recommended Prediction:
Dodgers -1.5
Current Market Price:
54¢
Model Win Probability:
59.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
54%
Model Edge:
5.5%
Buy Up To:
57¢
Model Trade Confidence:
80/100
Skubal enters Monday at 9-7 with a 2.84 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and 164 strikeouts across 139.2 innings. His recent work has been just as strong. Over his last 5 starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA, and he held Cincinnati to 2 runs over 7.1 innings on September 8. He is a big reason for our Dodgers vs Reds prediction being what it is.
That recent look at the Reds is worth remembering, because Cincinnati did not solve him the first time. Skubal allowed 4 hits, walked 2 and struck out 5 in the 3-2 Dodgers win. He has consistently limited traffic on the bases this season, and his 0.97 WHIP gives Cincinnati fewer opportunities to string together the multiple baserunners usually required for a big inning.
Lodolo enters at 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 89.2 innings. He was competitive against Los Angeles on September 8, allowing 3 runs in 4.2 innings while striking out 6, but he needed 97 pitches to get that far. That workload is important against a deep Dodgers order because Cincinnati may need to cover more than 4 innings with its relief pitching.
The Dodgers also own a major season-long offensive advantage. Los Angeles entered this series near the top of MLB in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS, while Cincinnati has been near the bottom in several of those categories. Even without Ohtani, Los Angeles still has Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, and Teoscar Hernández capable of creating pressure on pitchers throughout the order.
Ohtani is the biggest absence in this game for either team. He was placed on the 15-day injured list on September 11 because of left knee and right biceps issues. His absence lowers the ceiling of the Dodgers lineup, and it is the main reason I would not push the run-line price too far beyond 57¢.
Freeman is in better shape after dealing with right knee soreness. He returned to action Saturday after missing time, though his health remains worth tracking. Miguel Rojas also played Sunday after dealing with a shoulder issue. On the pitching side, Los Angeles has additional injured arms, including Roki Sasaki and Edwin Díaz.
Cincinnati has health concerns of its own. Hunter Greene is on the 60-day injured list, Spencer Steer is on the 10-day injured list, and Matt McLain has been listed day-to-day. Those absences reduce the Reds’ margin for error against a club with considerably more depth.
The Dodgers arrive after 2 painful losses in Miami, including a 6-4 walk-off defeat Sunday. Before that dip, they had won 8 straight. Cincinnati finally stopped a 5-game losing run Sunday, but its pitching staff took a beating over the previous 2 days, allowing 20 runs Friday and 13 Saturday against Milwaukee.
Los Angeles does not need to dominate every inning. It needs Skubal to keep Cincinnati under control long enough for the lineup to create separation against Lodolo and the Reds relief staff. Given the recent head-to-head results and the difference between the starting pitchers, Dodgers -1.5 is the side I prefer.
