White Sox vs Astros Game 1 Player Prop Predictions - 9/29/2026
Updated September 29, 2026
White Sox vs Astros Game 1 Full Game Pricing
Updated September 29, 2026
The Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros open their American League Wild Card Series on Tuesday at Daikin Park, with first pitch scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET. Chicago enters the postseason at 84-78, while Houston finished 81-81 and claimed the AL West. Both clubs are taking an unconventional pitching route in Game 1. Rookie left-hander Hagen Smith gets the opening assignment for Chicago, while Houston is turning to AJ Blubaugh as the first arm in what is expected to be a bullpen-heavy game. That puts extra emphasis on individual hitter prop markets because neither lineup is expected to see one pitcher 3 or 4 times.
Murakami Going Deep
Polymarket's Game 1 board currently contains 279 separate markets, with Houston priced around a 54% chance to win the game. The individual player-prop quote for Murakami's home-run contract is 25¢, which represents a 25% implied probability. The Japanese slugger is a slightly higher threat to hit a home run in our projections at 28%
Bullpen Game Opportunity
There is a huge chance for Murakami and the White Sox to have success at the plate in Game 1 of this series before things settle down in the rest of the series. The Astros and White Sox both had to use their starting pitching right up to the final day of the regular season, meaning that their rotations are not set for the playoffs. As a result, we will see a ton of bullpen arms for the Astros in Game 1, which should mean a higher-scoring game than we see in Game 2 and a potential Game 3.
Recommended Position:
Murakami 1+ HR
Current Price:
25¢
Model Probability:
28%
Market Probability:
25%
Model Edge:
3%
Entry Threshold:
27¢
Model Confidence:
55/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“A price of 25¢ or lower does not fully account for Murakami's elite barrel rate, his late-season power surge, or Blubaugh's tendency to allow damaging contact. Barrels matter heavily for this type of prediction because the goal is not simply to find a hitter likely to reach base. We need someone capable of turning one mistake into 4 total bases immediately. Murakami's barrel numbers give him that ceiling every time he gets a pitch in a favorable location.”
There is a clear statistical reason to start with Murakami in the prop markets, even if our White Sox vs Astros Game 1 prediction is backing the Astros. He finished his first MLB regular season with a team-leading 35 home runs, and his power remained present right through the final weekend. On Friday against Colorado, he went 3-for-4 with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs in Chicago's 6-1 victory. That was his third multi-homer game of the season.
Murakami has produced a 20.5% barrel rate, a figure that places him at the extreme upper end of MLB hitters. Blubaugh, meanwhile, allowed a 10.3% barrel rate, which ranked in the eighth percentile from the pitching side. Murakami has faced him only twice, so the head-to-head sample carries very little weight, though he did record a hit in those 2 at-bats.
Blubaugh worked 96 relief innings during the regular season and posted a 3.66 ERA. He did not make a conventional regular-season start, although Houston regularly asked him to cover multiple innings. The Astros are using him at the front of Game 1 partly because their pitching staff enters the postseason with availability concerns. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu are rested, but several other arms have dealt with injuries or recent workloads.
For Murakami, that creates both an opportunity and a risk. The opportunity is that Houston cannot simply leave one starter in the game and allow him to settle into a rhythm. Murakami could see several different pitchers, increasing the possibility that one of those arms leaves a pitch over the plate.
The downside is obvious. Houston can use its relief depth specifically to create favorable pitcher-hitter combinations. If Murakami reaches the plate in a major late-inning spot, the Astros can choose the arm they believe gives them the best chance to neutralize his left-handed power.
This series brings together 2 of the better home-run offenses in baseball. Houston finished first in MLB in home runs, while Chicago ranked fifth. Murakami was at the center of the White Sox power surge, with Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery also clearing 30 home runs.
That matters because Houston cannot pitch to Murakami as if he were the only damaging hitter in the order. Working around him becomes more difficult when Chicago can place other power threats nearby. More competitive pitches can mean more opportunities for Murakami to attack something in the strike zone.
The largest concern is Houston's ability to change pitchers aggressively. Because this is Game 1 of a best-of-three White Sox vs Astros series, there is little reason for the Astros to allow Blubaugh to work through trouble if Chicago begins squaring him up. Hader and Abreu are rested, giving Houston high-end late-inning options if the game stays close.
Murakami's swing-and-miss tendency also creates volatility. Elite barrel production does not matter if the pitcher avoids the center of the plate and finishes the plate appearance with a strikeout. Houston can also pitch around Murakami in selected situations rather than allowing him to extend his arms against a hittable offering.
Those risks are why the entry price matters so much. At 30¢, I would pass. At 28¢, the advantage is essentially gone based on this projection. At 25¢ or lower, the combination of power, recent form, and Blubaugh's barrel numbers create enough upside to justify the position.
My projection gives Murakami a 28% probability of hitting at least 1 home run in Game 1. The recommended Polymarket approach is therefore price-sensitive: buy Yes at 25¢ or lower, which creates a projected edge of 3%. Houston's ability to deploy fresh relief arms keeps this from being a higher-confidence position, but Murakami has exactly the type of power worth backing when the prediction-market price falls below his estimated true probability.
