White Sox vs Astros Game 2 Props: AL Wild Card Player Props
Updated September 30, 2026
White Sox vs Astros Game 2 Full Game Pricing
Updated September 30, 2026
Chicago has an immediate chance to close out this American League Wild Card Series after taking Game 1 in Houston, 6-3. Game 2 is set for 5:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Daikin Park, with Sean Burke expected to start for the White Sox and Hunter Brown getting the ball for an Astros club facing elimination. Burke finished the regular season 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA and 185 strikeouts, while Brown went 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 124 strikeouts across 107 1/3 innings. Brown is the player I want to target in the prop markets, and you can find my top position in those markets here.
Brown's Strikeout Pricing
Polymarket currently lists Brown strikeout contracts across a wide ladder, including Over/Under 6.5. The over at 6.5 strikeouts is listed at 45¢, which carries a 45% implied probability, while my model puts Brown's chance of recording at least 7 strikeouts at 50%. That creates a 5.0% edge. The full Polymarket game market has Houston around 59¢, reinforcing the expectation that Brown pitches from a relatively favorable game state if he is effective early.
Brown's Over Looks Favorable
The case for the Over is built around both strikeout rate and opponent. Brown produced 48 strikeouts over his final 33 regular-season innings, equal to 13.1 strikeouts per 9 innings. He also faced the White Sox twice in 2026 and finished those outings with 14 strikeouts across 13 innings, reaching 7 in each start. Chicago finished the regular season with a 24.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, including 1,050 strikeouts in 4,369 plate appearances. My distribution centers Brown near 7.3 strikeouts for Game 2.
Recommended Position:
Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Current Price:
45¢
Model Probability:
50%
Market Probability:
45%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
48¢
Model Confidence:
79/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“A 50¢ or lower price would put too much weight on Brown's 4-strikeout start to end the regular season. His more relevant recent sample is much stronger: he struck out 48 hitters in his final 33 innings, reached 7 strikeouts in 5 of his last 6 starts, and recorded exactly 7 strikeouts in both 2026 starts against Chicago.”
Brown's season was interrupted by a shoulder strain, but his work after returning became increasingly sharp as September progressed. His final 6 starts produced strikeout totals of 10, 7, 7, 10, 10, and 4. That is 48 strikeouts in 33 innings, and the Over 6.5 cleared in 5 of those 6 outings.
The final start is the obvious concern going into White Sox vs Astros Game 2. Brown struck out only 4 Athletics hitters across 5 1/3 innings on September 25 and issued 4 walks. That outing highlights the main issue with this prop: strikeout ability is not the same thing as guaranteed workload. If Brown falls behind hitters and drives up his pitch count, Houston could face a difficult decision before he reaches 7 strikeouts.
The White Sox were much improved overall in 2026, finishing 84-78 and taking Game 1, but their lineup still struck out frequently against right-handed pitching. Chicago struck out in 24.0% of its plate appearances against righties during the regular season. That is a useful baseline for a pitcher whose strikeout rate rose late in the year.
Brown has already shown that his stuff works against this exact group. On July 25, he held Chicago scoreless for 7 innings and struck out 7 without issuing a walk. On September 3, he allowed 2 earned runs in 6 innings while striking out 7. Across the 2 starts, Brown posted a 1.38 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 13 innings.
Brown's pitch data adds another reason to prefer the strikeout Over. His 4-seam fastball averaged 96.2 mph in 2026 and held hitters to a .160 batting average with a .142 expected batting average. It generated 37 strikeouts in 109 plate appearances that ended on the pitch. His knuckle curve was his clearest bat-missing breaking ball, producing a 36.1% whiff rate and 39 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances ending on the pitch.
That fastball-curve pairing is especially useful for a strikeout prop because Brown does not need weak contact to cash this position. He needs 7 finished plate appearances without the ball being put in play. The 4-seamer can get above barrels, while the curve gives him a very different speed and movement shape below the zone.
Brown also threw his sinker 30.9% of the time, nearly identical to his 30.4% 4-seam usage. If he leans too heavily on the sinker for early-count contact, that can lower his strikeout ceiling. The best version of this prop requires enough 2-strike counts for the 4-seamer and curve to do their work.
Houston used 8 relievers in Game 1, while Chicago leaned heavily on Grant Taylor for a career-high 54 pitches. That does not guarantee Brown a long outing, particularly in an elimination game, but it gives Houston a clear incentive to get useful length from its starter if he is throwing well.
Brown has completed at least 5 innings in each of his last 6 starts, and he reached 6 innings in both starts against Chicago this season. Seven strikeouts is very reachable within that workload given his recent rates. He does not need a 7-inning gem; 5 to 6 efficient innings can be enough if Chicago continues to miss at its regular-season rate.
