The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates close out a four-game set Thursday night at PNC Park. Chicago finally snapped its 10-game losing skid with a 10-4 win on Wednesday, but this matchup presents a much different challenge with Paul Skenes starting for the Pirates. Skenes has been one of the National League’s most reliable starters, while the Cubs hand the ball to Colin Rea, who has struggled to limit traffic on the bases during May. Here, I break down this NL Central matchup and make my Cubs vs Pirates prediction on the diamond.
Our Cubs vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Pirates Moneyline -174
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Thursday, May 28, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs Paul Skenes
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Chicago ended a 10-game losing streak with Wednesday’s 10-4 victory, but they still have plenty of work to do to make up for their recent struggles.
- Paul Skenes enters with a 6-4 record, 3.00 ERA, and 65 strikeouts. He gets the start for the Pirates here and is the reason they are favored.
- Colin Rea owns a 4.83 ERA and has allowed 57 hits in 54 innings heading into this start for the Cubs.
- Pittsburgh hitters are batting .252 as a team compared to .238 for Chicago, helping the Pirates to hold a record that is comparable to that of the Cubbies.
Pitching Matchup
Skenes has the clear edge in this matchup. The Pirates right-hander continues to overpower hitters with elite velocity and command, posting a sharp 0.82 WHIP through 60 innings. He has walked only nine batters all season and consistently works deep into games, which reduces pressure on the Pittsburgh bullpen. Skenes has also been effective at PNC Park, where his fastball plays even better in the spacious environment.
Rea has delivered mixed results for Chicago. He enters with a 4-3 record, though his numbers suggest risk against an improving Pirates lineup. Rea has surrendered eight home runs already and has not generated enough swings and misses, recording only 44 strikeouts in 54 innings. Pittsburgh’s left-handed power bats, especially Lowe and Reynolds, are positioned well in this matchup.
Key Players
- Ian Happ: Broke out Wednesday with five RBI and a three-run homer.
- Seiya Suzuki: Continues to be a major run producer in the middle of Chicago’s lineup.
- Brandon Lowe: Leads Pittsburgh with 14 home runs and 36 RBI.
- Bryan Reynolds: Collected three hits on Wednesday and remains Pittsburgh’s steadiest contact hitter.
- Oneil Cruz: Brings elite power potential even during streaky stretches for Pittsburgh.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Pittsburgh is 4-2 against the Cubs so far this season.
- The over has hit in two of the three games in this series so far.
- Chicago is 12-15 on the road for the year.
- Pittsburgh holds a 15-14 record at home this season.
Our Cubs vs Pirates Model Projection
- Score Projection: Pirates 5 – Cubs 2
- Win Probability: Pirates 61%, Cubs 39%
The Cubs showed life on Wednesday, but this is still a difficult spot against one of baseball’s top young starters. Skenes has consistently handled lineups with far more depth than Chicago’s current version, and Pittsburgh owns advantages in starting pitching, bullpen stability, and recent offensive production. Chicago’s lineup can create traffic on the bases, though converting those chances against Skenes is another issue entirely. I’ll take the Pirates to win this contest at home on Thursday night.
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