Updated September 9, 2026
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday, September 9, with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. CT at American Family Field. Milwaukee has taken the first two games at home and will look to complete the sweep in the final meeting of the regular season between the NL Central’s top two teams.
The Brewers have all but wrapped up the division, but both teams still have plenty to play for when it comes to playoff positioning. Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.38 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago against Logan Henderson (9-3, 2.48 ERA) for Milwaukee. In this preview, I’ll share my Cubs vs Brewers prediction and break down some of the biggest storylines surrounding Wednesday’s finale.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I like Milwaukee to finish off the sweep here. Henderson pitched really well against this same Cubs lineup last week, and with the Brewers back at home, I think they have the slight edge in another close game.”
A 6% edge in our projections
Polymarket currently prices Milwaukee at 55 cents, which translates to a 55% implied probability of winning. Chicago is available at 46 cents. Our model gives the Brewers a 61% chance to win, producing a 6% gap between the market price and our projected probability. At that price, Milwaukee offers solid value and remains playable up to around 59 cents.
Henderson gets another shot at Chicago
Wednesday is a rematch of last Thursday’s pitching matchup, when Chicago beat Milwaukee 2-1 at Wrigley Field. Henderson pitched really well despite taking the loss, allowing just two runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and no walks over seven innings. Gausman was even better, giving up just one run over seven innings with nine strikeouts. Both right-handers will have another tough test on Wednesday, as the Cubs and Brewers are tied for the MLB lead with a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Recommended Prediction:
Brewers to win
Current Market Price:
55¢
Model Win Probability:
61%
Market-Implied Probability:
55%
Model Edge:
6%
Buy Up To:
59¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
Logan Henderson has been excellent in his second year with the Brewers, posting a 9-3 record with a 2.48 ERA, 93 strikeouts, and a ridiculously low 0.79 WHIP across 83.1 innings. He’s been even better at American Family Field, where his ERA drops to 2.08 and Milwaukee is a perfect 7-0 in games he’s started.
Henderson did miss some time earlier this season after a low back strain landed him on the 15-day IL in late May. He was out for about six weeks before returning on July 9, and he’s been especially sharp lately. Henderson has allowed just five earned runs over his last 27 innings, a stretch that includes wins over the Braves and on the road against the Dodgers, along with seven strong innings against this same Cubs lineup last Thursday.
Henderson will certainly be put to the test on Wednesday night against a dangerous Cubs lineup led by NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong and veteran third baseman Alex Bregman. Crow-Armstrong has been one of baseball’s best hitters this season, batting .281 with 41 home runs, 97 RBIs, and a .948 OPS, while Bregman has added 24 homers and 82 RBIs of his own.
Chicago’s offense was especially hot in August, averaging an MLB-best 6.36 runs per game, more than a full run ahead of the next-best Red Sox at 5.34. For the season, the Cubs lead baseball with a .769 team OPS and 203 home runs, while their 615 walks show just how patient this lineup can be.
They have cooled off some in September, though, averaging 4.00 runs per game so far this month. Chicago also let one get away Tuesday night, taking a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth before Milwaukee came back to win 4-3 in 10 innings. After a tough loss like that, it could be difficult for the Cubs to turn around less than 24 hours later and get right back on track against Henderson.
Milwaukee has all but locked up the NL Central. With just 16 games remaining, the Brewers (90-56) hold a nine-game lead over the Cubs (81-65) and own the tiebreaker after clinching the season series. Chicago had a chance to make things interesting with seven games against Milwaukee in a 10-day stretch, but the Cubs have lost four of the first six with just Wednesday’s finale left.
There’s still plenty to play for on both sides, though. Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball but is only 1.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the NL’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Chicago also has plenty at stake in the Wild Card race. The Cubs currently hold the second Wild Card spot, just half a game behind Philadelphia for the top spot and the right to host a three-game Wild Card Series. More importantly, they’re only three games ahead of Arizona for the final playoff spot, with San Diego another half-game back. The division may be decided, but both teams still have plenty to play for down the stretch.
Looking for more baseball content? Check out our daily MLB predictions and best bets for more game previews, analysis, and free picks throughout the rest of the season.
