Updated September 7, 2026
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers open another important NL Central series Monday afternoon at American Family Field, just days after splitting 4 games at Wrigley Field. Milwaukee comes in at 88-56 and holds a 6-4 advantage in the season series, while Chicago sits at 81-63 after taking 2 of 3 from Miami over the weekend. The Brewers dropped 2 of 3 in Cincinnati, including a 12-8 loss Sunday, so neither club arrives without a few concerns. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET, with left-handers Robert Gasser and Matthew Boyd expected to start.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Chicago's recent power numbers are eye-catching, but Milwaukee owns the stronger full-season pitching profile, has home-field advantage, and has already won 6 of the first 10 meetings between these clubs.”
Our model favors Milwaukee
At a Polymarket price implying roughly a 54% chance of a Milwaukee victory, the Brewers appear a little too cheap. My projection puts Milwaukee at 58%, producing a 4% advantage over the current implied probability. That is enough separation to justify a position. The Cubs have plenty of offensive upside, and that keeps Milwaukee from reaching the low-60s in my projection, but our projection still favors the home side.
Brewers' pitching the difference maker
I would remain interested in Milwaukee up to 57 cents. Above that point, most of the value disappears because Boyd and Chicago's lineup are capable of turning this into a close game. At 54 cents, however, the price does not fully account for Milwaukee's sizable pitching advantage across the season, Chicago's current injury issues, and the Brewers' success in the season series. Milwaukee ranks 2nd in MLB with a 3.54 team ERA, compared with Chicago at 4.21, and that difference matters more to my projection than Chicago's recent home-run surge.
Recommended Prediction:
Brewers to win
Current Market Price:
54¢
Model Win Probability:
58%
Market-Implied Probability:
54%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
57¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
Milwaukee will send Robert Gasser to the mound after the left-hander faced the Cubs last week. Gasser is 4-5 with a 4.57 ERA and 4.37 FIP across 86 2/3 innings this season. In his previous start against Chicago, he allowed 3 runs, 2 earned, on 3 hits and 2 walks over 4 1/3 innings. Milwaukee eventually won that game 9-4.
His broader history against Chicago has been much better. Gasser owns a 1.74 ERA across 10 1/3 career innings against the Cubs. That is a small sample, but it provides some evidence that Chicago has not consistently solved him. He will need to be sharper than he has been recently because the Cubs are hitting the ball extremely well.
Chicago has hit 24 home runs across its last 10 games while batting .295 and slugging .553. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of the main drivers of that production, hitting 7 home runs with 13 RBIs over that span. Alex Bregman has also been dangerous, batting .350 with 5 home runs during his last 10 games. Gasser cannot afford many mistakes in the middle of the plate against a lineup producing that type of power.
Matthew Boyd starts for Chicago with an 8-3 record, 4.05 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 102 1/3 innings. He faced Milwaukee last week and surrendered 3 earned runs on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings. His career results against the Brewers are far less encouraging: Boyd has an 8.26 ERA across 28 1/3 innings against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee does not rely on home runs nearly as much as Chicago. The Brewers have hit just 133 this season, last in MLB, but they rank 3rd with 726 runs scored and have stolen 140 bases. Their ability to reach base, run, and create pressure gives them several paths to producing offense without waiting for a long ball. Milwaukee owns a .339 on-base percentage and has been one of baseball's most productive scoring clubs despite its lack of power.
The biggest argument against Milwaukee is its recent pitching. Brewers pitchers have posted a 5.86 ERA over their last 10 games and allowed 22 home runs. Chicago has been almost identical in that area, carrying a 5.87 ERA over its last 10 while giving up 19 home runs.
That recent stretch makes this game less comfortable than Milwaukee's full-season numbers suggest. Still, the larger sample is difficult to ignore. Milwaukee owns a 3.54 team ERA, including a 3.36 bullpen ERA. Chicago has a 4.21 team ERA and 3.99 bullpen ERA. If both starters leave the game around the 5th or 6th inning, Milwaukee has the stronger season-long relief pitching to fall back on.
The Cubs enter Monday with several notable injuries. Ian Happ is day-to-day after being scratched Sunday because of left knee discomfort, while Dansby Swanson is on the 10-day injured list with a side injury. Chicago is also missing several pitchers, including Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Gavin Hollowell, Justin Steele and Porter Hodge. Reliever Jacob Webb is day-to-day with forearm soreness.
Milwaukee also has unavailable pitchers, with Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, Angel Zerpa and others on the injured list. Even so, the Cubs currently have more uncertainty across both their position-player group and pitching staff.
Chicago has the better offensive numbers and enters Monday leading MLB in OPS, home runs and runs scored. That makes the Cubs dangerous at any price. Milwaukee, however, has the superior pitching numbers, owns a 6-4 season-series advantage, and gets this game at home. The Brewers have also already seen Boyd recently, which reduces some of the uncertainty around the opposing starter.
My projection makes Milwaukee a 58% favorite. The gap over Polymarket's 54% implied probability is modest but meaningful. Chicago's recent power output makes this far from an automatic play, yet the combination of Milwaukee's home-field advantage, deeper season-long pitching performance, and Chicago's injury concerns gives the Brewers enough of an advantage to warrant backing them at the current price.
