Updated September 16, 2026
Baltimore enters Wednesday night with a chance to complete a three-game sweep at Citi Field after taking the first 2 games 2-1 and 7-5. The Orioles are 74-78 and remain 3 games behind Cleveland for the final American League Wild Card spot, while the 69-82 Mets have already been eliminated from postseason contention. Chris Bassitt starts for Baltimore against Robert Stock for New York. Polymarket currently prices the Mets at 56¢ and the Orioles at 44¢.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“New York’s home field and higher-end names appear to be carrying too much weight in the market. Baltimore has the better starting pitcher on Wednesday, has won both games in this series, and still has postseason aspirations. Stock’s 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP leave New York with less margin for error than a 56% price suggests.”
A 5% Edge In Our Projections
Polymarket’s 44¢ Baltimore price implies a 44% chance that the Orioles win the finale. My number is 49%, creating a 5% edge. That is enough to make Baltimore the side at the current price, but the case rests more on the starting pitching gap and Wednesday’s circumstances than on the first 2 results alone.
Baltimore's Offense Is In Form
Baltimore has also produced 4.48 runs per game this season, and its power has shown up during this series. The Orioles hit 4 home runs Tuesday after Gunnar Henderson supplied the deciding homer Monday. New York still deserves to be a slight favorite in my projection because it owns home field and has enough dangerous hitters to exploit Bassitt’s high WHIP. The difference is that 56¢ asks too much of Stock and the Mets.
Recommended Prediction:
Orioles to Win
Current Market Price:
44¢
Model Win Probability:
49%
Market-Implied Probability:
44%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
48¢
Model Trade Confidence:
78/100
Bassitt has not dominated this season, but his body of work is stronger than Stock’s. The 37-year-old right-hander is 7-5 with a 4.88 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts in 90 1/3 innings. His most recent outing came Friday in Toronto, where he allowed 2 earned runs across 5-plus innings in a 7-4 Baltimore victory. His 4.57 FIP is also a little better than his ERA, although a low 16% strikeout rate and heavy hit total keep him from being viewed as a major advantage on his own.
Stock is 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over 30 1/3 innings. He has struck out 29 batters, but the high WHIP has made clean innings difficult to string together. His last appearance came against Miami, when he gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings during a wild 15-14 Mets victory. Baltimore’s lineup has enough power to punish a pitcher who allows extra baserunners, especially if Stock falls behind in counts.
The Orioles won Monday’s opener 2-1 behind Henderson’s eighth-inning home run, then survived an 11-inning game Tuesday for a 7-5 victory. Pete Alonso tied Tuesday’s game in the ninth with the 300th home run of his career, and Coby Mayo later supplied a three-run inside-the-park homer in the 11th. Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeremiah Jackson also went deep for Baltimore.
Those wins carry added importance because Baltimore still has a path into the postseason. The Orioles remain 3 games behind Cleveland for the final AL Wild Card position and are still alive in MLB predictions markets to win the World Series. New York, by contrast, has been eliminated. That does not mean the Mets will offer less effort, but Baltimore’s remaining games have direct standings consequences every night.
New York has enough offense to make the 44¢ Baltimore price uncomfortable. Juan Soto went 2-for-5 with an RBI Tuesday, Bo Bichette collected 3 hits and an RBI, and Carson Benge homered. The Mets have posted a .788 OPS across their latest 6-game stretch despite going 2-4 during that span.
Bassitt’s 1.59 WHIP is a reminder that trouble can develop quickly even when his final line is acceptable. Baltimore cannot simply count on another low-scoring game like Monday’s opener. The better path is for Bassitt to get through 5 or 6 innings without a large crooked number and let a Baltimore order featuring Alonso, Henderson and Mayo attack Stock and the New York relief group.
Alonso is particularly difficult to ignore after Tuesday night. His game-tying homer was his 300th career shot and his 36th of the season, while also giving him 101 RBIs. He has supplied the type of middle-order production Baltimore needs as it tries to stay within reach of the final Wild Card spot.
Tuesday’s extra-inning finish adds another layer to Wednesday’s pitching picture. Shane Baz was forced out after being struck on the elbow by a Bo Bichette line drive, requiring Baltimore to turn to its bullpen earlier than planned. X-rays were negative, but Baltimore still had to cover the rest of an 11-inning game with relievers. Alex Hoppe earned the victory and Andrew Kittredge recorded the final outs.
New York also needed its relief group after Sean Manaea worked 5 1/3 innings. That makes length from Bassitt and Stock more valuable than usual. Bassitt has reached at least 90 innings this season and carries considerably more major-league starting experience, another reason I give Baltimore a modest adjustment in the projection.
New York deserves respect as the home club, and its lineup has enough quality to beat Bassitt if his control slips. Stock is the larger concern and a big reason for my Orioles vs Mets prediction being what it is, even if our purely quantitative model disagrees. A 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP are difficult numbers to support at a 56¢ team price, particularly against an Orioles club that has already generated timely power in each of the first 2 games.
Baltimore is the value side at 44¢. The Orioles do not need to be projected as a clear favorite for that price to work. A 49% win estimate creates a 5% edge over Polymarket’s implied probability, while Bassitt’s advantage over Stock, Baltimore’s power and the Orioles’ remaining postseason stakes provide enough support to take the visitors in the series finale.
