WNBA
New York comes in with the better overall profile: 112.1 offensive rating, 108.1 defensive rating, and a 53.2 PIE mark versus Los Angeles at 107.5 offensive rating, 112.8 defensive rating, and 47.1 PIE. The Liberty also shoot a stronger free throw percentage at 85.3 compared with 78.4 for the Sparks, and they rebound at a high level while limiting opponents to 87.6 points per game. Los Angeles can still create scoring pressure through volume and spacing, with 46.5 percent shooting from the field and 33.3 percent from three, but the Sparks’ defense has been the bigger issue. They allow 48.0 percent shooting and 93.6 points per game, which is a difficult combination against a home favorite that already averages 90.8 points. New York’s 11-5 home record also strengthens the case that the Liberty should dictate much of the game’s flow.
New York should win this game, but the better betting angle is the under. The Liberty are the stronger team in nearly every efficiency category, and their home record supports a comfortable victory, but the combined scoring and defensive numbers point more toward a final in the low 180s than the current total of 187.5. My projected score is New York Liberty 93, Los Angeles Sparks 88, which lands well below the market and fits the Under 187.5 play.
