US OPEN
Khachanov’s advantage is built on a more dependable hard-court profile and a more stable level in baseline exchanges. He has repeatedly shown he can handle bigger servers and absorb pace on this surface, which is important against a younger hitter who wants shorter points and first-strike control. Blockx has developed quickly and has flashed real tour-level quality, but his recent path still reads more like a player ascending than one already settled at this stage of a Slam draw. The market also seems to be giving Blockx credit for upside that may already be priced into his number. Khachanov’s matchup fit is straightforward: serve well, keep the ball deeper than Blockx likes, and force the Belgian to win enough return points to sustain an upset over a longer match. That is a tougher ask than the odds suggest, especially in a format where a veteran who manages service games well usually gets the nod more often than a rising player still building consistency against elite opposition.
Khachanov’s recent form has been uneven, but the results still point to a player operating at a level that is hard to dismiss in a major hard-court setting. He has taken losses to dangerous opponents, yet he also continues to create the kind of matches where his serving and first-strike patterns can carry him. Blockx has made notable progress this season, including stronger runs at lower and mid-tier events, but his recent body of work also shows that stepping up against a top-end opponent remains a different test. Surface matters here. Khachanov is the more established hard-court player and the better fit for the US Open environment, while Blockx’s momentum has been built more on the Challenger and clay side of the calendar. That does not make the underdog harmless, but it does mean the favorite’s edge is rooted in a surface-specific advantage rather than reputation alone. In a match expected to feature stretches of serve dominance, the player with the more proven big-match hard-court resume is the side that still looks slightly undervalued.
Karen Khachanov and Alexander Blockx are tied 0-0 in their head-to-head series.
Karen Khachanov is projected to win this match, with the better hard-court fit and the more reliable service patterns giving him the edge over a talented but still ascending Alexander Blockx. The most likely script is Khachanov controlling enough return games to separate in a competitive match and close it in straight sets or a four-set style battle if Blockx steals a set. The projected winner is Karen Khachanov, with a projected total of 40 games.
