TENNIS
De Minaur enters with the more reliable recent profile on tour, backed by a strong run through the 2026 season and multiple notable hard-court performances. He has shown he can handle top-level pace, absorb pressure, and still create enough return looks to win matches without needing a huge serving day. Khachanov has remained a credible threat, especially because his serve can make matches swing quickly, but his results have been more volatile and he is more dependent on a clean serving performance to control the scoreboard. On this surface and in this format, de Minaur’s steadier return game and defensive range give him the narrower but more bankable path.
The head-to-head series is tied 2-2.
Alex de Minaur is the projected winner in straight sets, with a projected 2-0 score and 23 total games. The case for the home side is that his return quality, court coverage, and comfort in longer baseline exchanges make him a slightly better fit on hard court against Khachanov’s serve-led style. Khachanov has enough firepower to keep sets tight, but the current price still leaves a small edge on de Minaur, especially if this match features more rallies than free points.
