COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Louisville enters at 2-1 with two straight wins and has been much stronger offensively than Wake Forest, producing 515.3 yards per game and 46.0 points per game behind 286.3 passing yards and 229.0 rushing yards per game. Wake Forest is also 2-1, but its attack has been less productive overall at 434.7 yards and 32.0 points per game, even though the passing game has been efficient at 297.7 yards per game. Defensively, both teams have allowed 28.3 points per game, but Louisville has been the better yards-per-play team at 7.0 on offense compared with Wake Forest’s 6.4, while Wake Forest has allowed 5.1 yards per play compared with Louisville’s 6.0. That combination points to a Louisville scoring ceiling that is higher than the market number attached to its team total.
Louisville should be in position to control this game with its stronger overall offense and better yards-per-play profile, and the most playable angle is the Cardinals’ team total over. A projected final score of Louisville Cardinals 38, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 24 fits the matchup well, with Louisville’s passing and rushing balance creating enough scoring chances to clear the number even if Wake Forest answers with a few drives of its own. The market looks a bit slow to fully price Louisville’s scoring rate, making the home team’s total the best value on the board.
