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Toledo has a credible path to keeping this game within one possession because its defensive identity should survive the coaching transition. The Rockets held opponents to 13.3 points per game in 2025, limited them to 2.7 yards per rushing attempt and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 50.1% of their passes. New head coach Mike Jacobs also added an established edge rusher in Andrew Zock, who produced 46 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and 23 quarterback hurries at Mercer last season. That pressure potential matters against a Michigan State offense that surrendered 37 sacks in 2025 and converted only 34.8% of its third downs. The Spartans have upgraded their offensive line and backfield, but those new pieces must perform together immediately. Toledo’s offense carries uncertainty with first-year starter John Alan Richter, yet running back CJ Miller supplies dependable production after rushing for 957 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. The combination of defense, pass-rush talent and a productive rushing option gives Toledo several ways to shorten the game. Michigan State can win without creating the separation needed to cover 10.5 points.
Toledo finished 8-5 in 2025 and closed the regular season with four consecutive wins over Northern Illinois, Miami (Ohio), Ball State and Central Michigan. The Rockets outscored those four opponents 125-18 before losing 27-22 to Louisville in their bowl game. Their season-long numbers included 30.9 points per game, 177.2 rushing yards per game and 238.1 passing yards per game. Much of that offense departed, leaving Richter to take over after completing 17 of 25 passes for 153 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in limited 2025 action. Miller becomes a central figure in the rebuilt backfield, while Zock leads a defensive front assembled with several transfers familiar with Jacobs. Michigan State finished 4-8 and 1-8 in Big Ten play, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 38-28 victory over Maryland. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic provides continuity after completing 64.2% of his passes for 1,267 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in 2025. Across his four starts, he threw for 986 yards and seven touchdowns. Transfer running back Cam Edwards adds proven production after rushing for 1,240 yards and 15 touchdowns at Connecticut last season. Linebacker Jordan Hall remains Michigan State’s defensive leader after recording 88 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, three forced fumbles and one interception. The Spartans possess the higher ceiling on offense, but their 2025 defense allowed 378.7 yards per game, 6.0 yards per play and a 41.7% third-down conversion rate.
Michigan State deserves to be favored at home because Milivojevic has starting experience, Edwards gives the offense an accomplished runner, and Hall anchors the defense. The question is whether the Spartans merit a double-digit number after going 4-8, allowing nearly 30 points per game and changing head coaches. Toledo’s 2025 defense was far more efficient, and the addition of Zock should help the Rockets pressure Milivojevic without relying on frequent extra rushers. Richter’s limited experience lowers Toledo’s outright-win probability, but Miller and the ground game can reduce his burden while keeping the clock moving. The projection calls for Michigan State to win 28-24, producing a 52-point total and giving Toledo a comfortable cover at +10.5.
