COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Florida State's 2025 results make the 31.5-point spread look aggressive at first glance, but the underlying matchup is considerably more favorable than the records suggest. The Seminoles produced 472.1 yards per game last season, including 218.7 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry. New Mexico State allowed 165.0 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. That creates a clear path for Florida State to control the game on the ground, particularly with Ousmane Kromah returning after averaging 5.7 yards per carry as a freshman. Kromah finished 2025 with 408 rushing yards and 147 receiving yards, while Quintrevion Wisner also joins the backfield after transferring from Texas. The Seminoles also have a significant advantage at wide receiver. Duce Robinson returns after a 2025 season in which he caught 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns, earning first-team All-ACC recognition and preseason All-American honors entering 2026. Ashton Daniels has been named Florida State's starting quarterback, giving the offense an experienced transfer at the position, although his role is new in Tallahassee. New Mexico State has a promising quarterback of its own in Trey Hedden, who transferred from Furman after throwing for 2,967 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2025, but he will be making his Aggie debut against a Power Four opponent on the road.
New Mexico State finished 4-8 in 2025 and struggled to consistently move the ball, averaging 250.7 passing yards and just 77.3 rushing yards per game. The Aggies also surrendered 236.8 passing yards and 165.0 rushing yards per game. There are reasons for optimism entering 2026, however. New Mexico State returns significant production, Hedden gives the offense a new quarterback with proven FCS production, and running back Dijon Stanley is back after leading the team with 308 rushing yards in 2025 while averaging 4.1 yards per carry. The Aggies have also added James Jones at running back and return wide receiver TK King, giving Hedden more help than the team's 2025 numbers indicate. Florida State's 5-7 record from a year ago similarly understates the potential of the 2026 roster. The Seminoles averaged 33.0 points and 472.1 yards per game in 2025, while their defense held opponents to 328.8 yards per game. Florida State's defense remains under Tony White, and the Seminoles have spent the offseason adding talent around returning pieces. The biggest offensive change is at quarterback, where Daniels takes over after spending 2025 at Auburn. His career numbers include 4,783 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns and 22 interceptions across four seasons, and Florida State coaches have praised his progress throughout the offseason.
Florida State should have enough offensive firepower and defensive control to separate from New Mexico State early and cover the 31.5-point spread in its home opener. The Aggies have upgraded their quarterback situation with Trey Hedden and added talent around him, but their 2025 defense allowed 401.8 yards per game, including 165.0 rushing yards, which is a poor fit against a Florida State offense that averaged 218.7 rushing yards per game and returns Ousmane Kromah alongside other talented backs. Duce Robinson gives Ashton Daniels an elite receiving option, while Florida State's returning defensive structure should limit New Mexico State's ability to sustain enough drives to keep pace. The model projects Florida State to win 45-13, producing a 58-point total and a 32-point margin that clears the current 31.5-point spread by a narrow but meaningful margin.
