COLLEGE FOOTBALL
New Mexico enters with a strong offense at 37.0 points per game and 363.9 yards per game, powered by 210.6 rushing yards per game. Defensively, the Lobos have been much better than their record profile might suggest, allowing only 11.3 points per game and 261.0 yards per game. San Jose State averages 20.4 points and 362.1 yards per game, but its defense has given up 22.5 points and 379.9 yards per game, leaving it vulnerable if New Mexico can sustain drives and win the field-position battle. The Spartans have also been poor in yards per play on defense, and New Mexico’s balanced efficiency gives the visitors the cleaner overall profile heading into this game.
New Mexico has the better overall profile, but the strongest value is on San Jose State’s team total under because the Spartans have been far less reliable offensively than their raw yardage suggests. New Mexico allows just 11.3 points per game and only 4.5 yards per play, while San Jose State is scoring 20.4 points per game and has been one of the more reliable under teams in the sample. The projected final score is New Mexico Lobos 27, San Jose State Spartans 13, which keeps the Spartans below their scoring expectation and leaves the full game near the lower end of the market range.
