COLLEGE FOOTBALL
New Mexico enters at 2-1 with a sharp defensive start, allowing only 28 total points across three games while scoring 38.0 points per game. The Lobos have gained 336.3 yards per game, with 187.0 rushing yards per game and 149.3 passing yards per game, and their 4.1 yards per play mark shows an offense that can move efficiently enough without needing a huge scoring pace. New Mexico State is 1-2, putting up 29.0 points per game and 417.7 yards per game, led by 282.0 passing yards per game, but the Aggies have also allowed 25.7 points per game and 358.7 yards per game, which leaves room for New Mexico to keep the tempo and scoring total controlled.
New Mexico should be able to dictate enough of this game to leave New Mexico State chasing, but the strongest betting angle is the under because the Lobos have paired efficient offense with a defense that has been far better than the market may be giving them credit for. New Mexico State can throw the ball well, yet its defense has allowed too many yards and points to inspire confidence in a true shootout. My projected final score is New Mexico Lobos 27, New Mexico State Aggies 20, which lands below the current total and fits an under ticket.
