COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Missouri enters with the stronger recent statistical profile, led by 31.1 points per game, 429.6 total yards per game, and 6.0 yards per play on offense. The Tigers have also been steadier on defense, allowing 19.6 points and 4.9 yards per play. Arkansas has been more uneven, posting 21.0 points and 343.0 yards per game while allowing 26.7 points and 357.7 yards per game. Missouri’s 3-4 record against the spread and 3-4 over/under mark show a team that has not always outperformed market expectations, while Arkansas has also been uneven against the number and has played more lower-scoring games than the market may suggest.
Missouri is the better team on paper and should be the more likely winner, but Arkansas has enough offensive ability to keep this inside the number. The Tigers’ edge in total offense and defensive stability points to a road win, yet Arkansas’s scoring average and the home field factor support a closer final than the market is pricing. My projection is Missouri 31, Arkansas 24, which fits an Arkansas cover and a game total in the mid-50s.
