COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Both teams enter with strong records, but Tennessee’s recent form is slightly cleaner. The Volunteers have won two straight and are producing 34.7 points per game behind a run game that averages 228.3 rushing yards per game. Alabama has scored 44.2 points per game and has the more efficient overall offense, yet its defense has allowed 20.7 points per game and it just took a loss. Tennessee’s defense has held opponents to 15.5 points per game, and its 35.9% third-down offense points to a team that can keep drives alive and control game script long enough to stay competitive.
Alabama has the more dangerous passing and scoring profile, but Tennessee’s home-field edge, stronger recent form, and ability to run the ball make the underdog side the better value. The projected game script points to Alabama winning a close one, but not by enough to justify the favorite price. Final score projection: Alabama Crimson Tide 31, Tennessee Volunteers 27.