COLLEGE FOOTBALL
The Under 48.5 stands out because the market has priced a number that already assumes a fairly clean, efficient offensive night from both sides. The 2025 data points to a game that should be competitive in the trenches but not especially fast. Akron finished at 5.06 yards per play on offense and allowed 5.84, while Wake Forest posted 5.95 yards per play and allowed 4.62. That profile supports Wake controlling the game without necessarily producing a track-meet score. The gap on paper is real, but it does not automatically point to an over. Akron’s offense was middling, and Wake Forest’s defense was materially better than Akron’s. If Wake Forest gets an early lead, the Deacons can lean on possession and reduce total snaps, which helps the under even if the home favorite wins comfortably. The current total looks a touch high relative to the combined efficiency and scoring data.
Wake Forest enters with the stronger recent statistical base. In 2025, the Demon Deacons averaged 28.1 points per game and 5.95 yards per play, with opponents held to 22.1 points per game and 4.62 yards per play. Akron’s 2025 numbers were more modest: 22.3 points per game, 5.06 yards per play, and 27.4 points allowed per game. That is a meaningful efficiency gap, especially on the defensive side. The yardage profile also points toward Wake Forest having the cleaner offensive plan. Akron averaged 134.5 rushing yards and 219.0 passing yards per game, while Wake Forest produced 156.2 rushing yards and 237.7 passing yards per game. On the other side, Wake’s defense limited opponents to 121.6 rushing yards and 206.9 passing yards per game, which creates a tougher scoring path for Akron than the box score average alone might suggest. If Wake Forest handles early downs well, Akron may struggle to sustain long drives.
Wake Forest should control this game from the start, but the better betting angle is the Under 48.5 rather than laying a massive number. My projection is Wake Forest 31, Akron 14, for a total of 45. That lines up with Wake Forest’s efficient but not ultra-fast offense and Akron’s below-average scoring profile, while also leaving room for the favorite to win comfortably without pushing the game over the total.
