Updated September 16, 2026
Tulane heads to Manhattan on Saturday with a 1-1 record and a much tougher assignment than the final score of last week’s win suggests. The Green Wave beat South Alabama 28-24, but they were outgained 478-424, lost the first-down battle 25-13, and held the ball for only 22:20. Kansas State is 2-0 after a 34-7 win over Washington State and has outscored its first 2 opponents 105-10. That combination makes the Wildcats a logical favorite, but the key question is whether they can create enough separation to clear 20.5 points in the point spread market.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Tulane’s explosive rushing performance against South Alabama may be masking a larger down-to-down mismatch. Kansas State is averaging 303.5 rushing yards per game, while Tulane is allowing 216.0 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats also own a major defensive edge, allowing only 144.0 total yards and 5.0 points per game early in the season.”
K-State Heavily Favored At Home
Polymarket currently prices Kansas State at 92¢ to win outright and Tulane at 9¢. That price strongly favors the Wildcats to win, yet it says much less about whether Kansas State can cover a large number. But our model likes the Wildcats to cover the number as well.
Our Model Likes K-State
My model lands at 56% for the Wildcats to cover the number, producing a 3% edge. I project Kansas State to win a 37-13 type of game, with the Wildcats able to create repeated short fields through defense, field position, and sustained rushing success. That position remains playable to 55¢.
Recommended Prediction:
Kansas State -20.5
Current Market Price:
53¢
Model Win Probability:
56%
Market-Implied Probability:
53%
Model Edge:
3%
Buy Up To:
55¢
Model Trade Confidence:
66/100
Kansas State has been dominant through 2 games under first-year head coach Collin Klein. The Wildcats opened with a 71-3 win over Nicholls before beating Washington State 34-7. Their defense has not allowed an offensive touchdown, opponents are just 6-for-28 on third down, and Kansas State has been among the strongest teams nationally in passing and total defense through the opening weeks.
Tulane showed a much better offensive performance against South Alabama after losing 17-3 at Duke. Quarterback Kadin Semonza threw for 212 yards in the win, while Jaylin Lucas ran for 214 yards on only 11 carries. Lucas gives Tulane a genuine big-play threat, but the Green Wave have not shown consistent possession-to-possession efficiency yet. They will need to overcome that for Tulane vs Kansas State predictions to be settled in favor of the Green Wave.
This is the matchup that will decide the game. Kansas State is averaging 303.5 rushing yards per game, led by Rodney Fields Jr. at 103.0 per game. Tulane has allowed 216.0 rushing yards per game, including 250 against Duke and 182 against South Alabama.
If Kansas State stays ahead of the chains, Avery Johnson will not need to carry the offense through high-risk passing volume. He threw 2 interceptions against Washington State, but Kansas State still produced 487 yards and nearly 295 on the ground. A run-heavy approach can shorten third downs, limit Tulane possessions, and steadily wear down a Green Wave defense that faced 72 plays last week.
Tulane’s best route to staying inside the number is Lucas creating explosive runs and Semonza connecting with Destyn Hill. Hill has 158 receiving yards through 2 games, while Semonza is averaging 8.19 yards per pass attempt. Kansas State has allowed only 47.5 passing yards per game, though that figure comes from a very small sample against Nicholls and Washington State.
Tulane cannot rely on isolated explosive plays alone. The Green Wave need longer drives to keep Kansas State’s ground game off the field and avoid asking their defense to handle another heavy snap count.
Kansas State has the advantage on both lines of scrimmage, the stronger early defensive numbers, and home field at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Tulane has enough speed to create a few scoring chances, but its run defense is the concern against a Kansas State offense built to keep attacking the same weakness.
The spread is large enough to create late-game risk, but the matchup still points to Kansas State controlling the game for long stretches. With a projected margin in the low-to-mid 20s and a 56% cover probability, Kansas State -20.5 is our prediction.
