Updated September 16, 2026
The No. 16 SMU Mustangs and No. 23 Louisville Cardinals meet on Saturday, September 19, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET at L&N Stadium. With Miami the clear conference favorite, some are calling this Top 25 showdown an early play-in game for the other spot in the ACC Championship Game.
SMU is 2-0 after wins over Florida State and UC Davis, while Louisville is 1-1 after beating Villanova and narrowly losing to now-No. 8 Ole Miss in Nashville. The Mustangs have also beaten Louisville in back-to-back years since joining the ACC in 2024.
For our SMU vs Louisville prediction, I’m taking Louisville -1.5. In this article, I’ll break down why I think the Cardinals finally get past SMU, along with the biggest storylines to watch on Saturday.
ATS Expert Verdict:
“I’m backing the Cards to win and cover -1.5. In a matchup between two high-powered offenses, I think Louisville’s defense will be the difference. The Cardinals should be able to put enough pressure on Kevin Jennings to make him uncomfortable and force a turnover or two. I also trust Louisville’s skill players a little more to create some big plays and help Kienholz out. Add in home-field advantage and a double-revenge spot, and I’ll take Jeff Brohm to get it done on Saturday.”
Polymarket Pricing
Louisville -1.5 is currently trading at 50¢ on Polymarket, while our model gives the Cardinals a 56% chance to cover. That gives us about a 6% edge at the current market price, with the model projecting a 34-31 Louisville win.
Louisville Has the Defensive Edge
Turnovers have been an issue for Kevin Jennings, who threw double-digit interceptions in both 2024 and 2025 and already had two against Florida State this season. That could be a problem against a Louisville defense that ranked top 30 nationally in interceptions last year. The Cards also return Clev Lubin and many key pieces from a 2025 unit that finished second in the ACC in yards allowed (303.1 per game).
SMU Has Struggled to Establish the Run
SMU has been explosive through the air, but the Mustangs have struggled to establish the run. Louisville, meanwhile, is averaging 341 passing yards and 211 rushing yards per game, giving the Cards a much more balanced attack and more ways to move the ball on Saturday.
Recommended Prediction:
Louisville -1.5
Current Market Price:
50¢
Model Cover Probability:
56%
Market-Implied Probability:
50%
Model Edge:
6%
Buy Up To:
55¢
Model Trade Confidence:
64/100
Before checking out our other college football predictions for this week, let’s break down the biggest storylines that could decide SMU vs Louisville on Saturday.
Even though I’m backing Louisville on Saturday, it’s hard to ignore how good Kevin Jennings has been against the Cards. In SMU’s upset win over No. 22 Louisville in 2024, he completed 21 of 27 passes for 281 yards and added 113 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Jennings followed that up with another big performance in last year’s blowout win, throwing for 303 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Across the two matchups, he has 697 total yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions against Louisville.
Entering the 2026 season, Jennings landed on the Davey O’Brien and Maxwell Award watch lists, and his ability to extend plays and create with his legs will be a huge challenge for Louisville. Co-defensive coordinators Mark Ivey and Steve Ellis will need to find an answer that the Cards simply haven’t had the last two years.
If you’re going up against an offense led by Kevin Jennings, it certainly helps to have Lincoln Kienholz on the other side. The Ohio State transfer has 750 total yards through his first two starts, ranking second in the country behind none other than Kevin Jennings (805). Kienholz has thrown for 639 yards and four touchdowns without an interception while adding 111 yards and three scores on the ground.
Kienholz was especially impressive against Ole Miss. In his first collegiate start, he threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns while adding 69 yards and another score on the ground against last year’s national semifinalist.
He’s also getting plenty of help. Vanderbilt transfer Tre Richardson has 181 receiving yards, while Florida State transfer Lawayne McCoy has turned just five catches into 164 yards and two touchdowns.
And perhaps the craziest part is that Louisville’s star running back, Isaac Brown, hasn’t really gotten going yet. Brown averaged 8.8 yards per carry in 2025, but has just 97 yards on 29 carries through two games this season. If he gets going on Saturday, this offense could be even more dangerous.
The Polymarket app currently has Over 58.5 Total Points priced at 53¢, so the market is expecting plenty of points on Saturday. I think the difference will come down to which defense can get a few key stops and force Jennings or Kienholz into a mistake.
SMU is allowing just 17 points per game and has already recorded seven sacks through two games. Safety Jimmy Wyrick has two of them, while veteran linebacker and team captain Alexander Kilgore helps anchor the middle of the defense.
Louisville can create plenty of pressure, too. Preseason All-ACC defensive end Clev Lubin had 8.5 sacks last season and already has two forced fumbles in 2026. The bigger concern is preventing the explosive plays that Jennings has hurt the Cards with in the past.
I don’t expect either defense to shut down the other offense, but one or two sacks, turnovers or key third-down stops could end up deciding this game.
These are two of the top teams in the ACC, and there really isn’t much separating them. SMU has had Louisville’s number the last two years, but the Cards were in a tough situational spot both times. They were coming off a close road loss to top-10 Notre Dame in 2024, then played last year’s game without starting quarterback Miller Moss and star running back Isaac Brown.
I like the situation for Louisville much more this time around. The Cards have already been tested against now-No. 8 Ole Miss, coming within three points on a neutral field, and after losing to SMU twice in a row, I expect the Mustangs to have Jeff Brohm’s full attention. Add in a desperate Louisville team looking to avoid a 1-2 start, and I’ll back the Cards to finally get it done and pick up the program’s first-ever win over SMU.
Prediction: Louisville 34, SMU 31
Best Trade: Louisville -1.5 at 50¢ (playable up to 55¢)
