Updated September 10, 2026
Ohio State and Texas meet Saturday, September 12, in Austin in one of the biggest nonconference games of the 2026 season. No. 1 Ohio State enters after a 56-3 win over Ball State, while No. 4 Texas opened with a 59-7 victory over Texas State. The Buckeyes won this matchup 14-7 last season, but Texas now gets the rematch at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium with a more experienced Arch Manning and a deeper group of receiving options. The question is whether that will be enough to knock off the Buckeyes.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Texas has the home-field advantage, Manning is better prepared for Ohio State than he was a year ago, and the Longhorns have enough receiving talent to test a Buckeyes defensive backfield featuring several new pieces.”
Close to a Pick 'Em Game
Texas is currently priced around 54¢ on Polymarket, implying roughly a 54% chance of a Longhorns victory. Ohio State is available near 47¢. Polymarket's spread pricing has also placed Texas around -1.5, confirming that the market views the teams as close to evenly matched, with a modest lean toward the home side.
A 4% Edge With Texas
My 58% win probability gives Texas a 4% model edge at a 54¢ price. The difference comes largely from venue, quarterback development, and the way the teams match up through the air. Ohio State deserves respect as the nation's No. 1 team, but Texas' home-field advantage should help them flip the script after last year's loss in Columbus.
Recommended Prediction:
Texas to Win
Current Market Price:
54¢
Model Win Probability:
58%
Market-Implied Probability:
54%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
56¢
Model Trade Confidence:
72/100
Julian Sayin was outstanding in Ohio State's opener, completing 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Jeremiah Smith immediately looked like one of college football's most dangerous receivers, catching eight passes for 151 yards and two scores before sitting out the second half. Ohio State also rushed for 237 yards at 6.8 yards per carry.
Manning started his year with 305 passing yards and four touchdowns as Texas routed Texas State. He completed more than 74% of his passes, although he did throw an interception. The key difference from last year's meeting is experience. Manning threw for 170 yards with one touchdown and one interception in Texas' 14-7 loss to Ohio State in 2025. He enters this rematch with a full additional season of development and better options around him.
The key to the outcome of this Ohio State vs Texas prediction is the expectation that Manning will play better against Ohio State at home than he did on the road last year.
This may be the matchup that decides the game. Texas can attack with Ryan Wingo and Auburn transfer Cam Coleman, giving Manning multiple receivers capable of creating separation downfield. Wingo opened the season with 121 receiving yards, while Coleman scored in his Texas debut.
Ohio State still has considerable defensive talent, particularly up front, but the defensive backfield has new personnel in important roles. If Texas protects Manning long enough to force those defenders into isolated coverage, the Longhorns should create more explosive passing opportunities than they did in last season's meeting.
Ohio State's rushing numbers against Ball State were strong by the final whistle, but the Buckeyes produced just 35 rushing yards in the first half before breaking several long runs later. Bo Jackson finished as Ohio State's leading rusher with 83 yards. Texas has the defensive front to make early-down rushing efficiency harder to find, placing more pressure on Sayin to convert longer situations.
Texas does have its own concern at running back. Freshman Derrek Cooper will miss the Ohio State game after suffering an ankle injury in the opener. Hollywood Smothers remains the lead option after rushing for 70 yards against Texas State, so Cooper's absence reduces depth more than it changes the core offensive plan.
Both teams have enough offensive talent to win, but Texas has the more favorable setting and a quarterback with a clear opportunity to correct what went wrong in last year's meeting. Ohio State's Smith is the most dangerous individual player on the field, yet Texas has more ways to distribute the passing game across multiple receivers.
The gap is small, which is why Texas is playable only through 56¢. At the current 54¢ price, the Longhorns offer enough value to justify the position. My projected outcome is Texas winning a close game, with Manning producing the decisive drives late.
