Heisman Trophy Market Update: Jeremiah Smith Moves to the Front of the Pack
Updated September 29, 2026
Updated September 29, 2026
The Heisman Trophy race has undergone a dramatic reshuffling through the opening month of the 2026 college football season, and the movement on Polymarket reflects how quickly perceptions can change. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has surged into the top spot following his biggest performance of the season, while Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has fallen sharply after briefly becoming the favorite. With several months remaining before the Heisman Trophy is awarded, the futures market remains highly sensitive to individual performances, team results, and the health of the top players in the country.
Jeremiah Smith has made the most significant upward move in the Heisman Trophy futures market. Following Week 4, Polymarket priced Smith at approximately 28% to win the award, making him the clear market favorite. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah was second at 19%, creating a sizable gap between Smith, Mensah, and the rest of the field.
That represents a major change from earlier in September. Smith was priced around 9% on Polymarket a week ago. His market position changed dramatically after Ohio State's 42-19 victory over Illinois.
Smith finished that game with 12 receptions for 217 yards and four touchdowns. The performance immediately strengthened his statistical resume while giving him the type of nationally visible game that can drive Heisman attention. Smith moved into first place nationally with 617 receiving yards following the performance.
His rise is particularly notable because quarterbacks have traditionally dominated the Heisman market. Smith is currently the only non-quarterback near the very top of Polymarket's pricing, meaning traders are assigning substantial probability to a wide receiver breaking through a field largely composed of quarterbacks.
Few players demonstrate the volatility of the Heisman futures market better than Trinidad Chambliss. Following Ole Miss' victory over LSU in Week 3, Chambliss moved all the way to the top of Polymarket's Heisman market alongside Mensah. One week later, the picture looks much different.
Polymarket's post-Week 4 pricing had Chambliss down to approximately 8%, placing him third behind Smith and Mensah. The move followed Ole Miss' 52-28 loss at Florida. Importantly, Chambliss' individual performance was not disastrous. He accounted for 342 total yards and three touchdowns, including 298 passing yards. However, the team result changed how traders were evaluating his candidacy.
That highlights an important characteristic of Heisman futures markets. Individual statistics matter, but candidates are also evaluated within the broader context of their team's success, national ranking, and opportunities to produce signature wins. A quarterback can play reasonably well and still see his Heisman price decline sharply when his team suffers a high-profile loss.
Dante Moore entered the season as one of the established names in the Heisman futures market and spent the early part of September priced around the upper-single-digit range on Polymarket. His early-season production supported that position, as Moore entered Oregon's matchup with USC with 849 passing yards and nine touchdowns through three games.
His Heisman outlook changed when he suffered a concussion during Oregon's 41-27 victory over USC.
Moore was injured during the second quarter after taking a hit while sliding and was transported to a hospital for evaluation. Subsequent testing reportedly showed no additional injuries beyond the concussion, and Moore later said he planned to return. Oregon also has a bye before its next game against UCLA, potentially giving him additional recovery time.
For futures traders, the issue is not necessarily Moore's performance before the injury. It is uncertainty surrounding how much time he could miss and whether an absence would disrupt his statistical accumulation and Heisman momentum. Availability is especially important in an award race in which candidates have only a limited number of regular-season games to build their résumés.
