The Vermont Catamounts and UMBC Retrievers will collide on Thursday night in an America East basketball game that figures to carry major implications in the league standings. Both teams sit near the top of the conference, with Vermont at 17-10 overall and 9-3 in league play and UMBC at 16-8 and 9-2 in the AE. This matchup features two of the top three teams in the conference standings, and you will find my Vermont vs UMBC prediction right here.
Our Vermont vs UMBC Pick
Pick: Vermont Catamounts -1.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Vermont Catamounts @ UMBC Retrievers
- Date & Time: Thursday, February 19, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, Maryland
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Players
UMBC Retrievers
- Jah’likai King – Team leader in scoring at about 13.7 points per game, with 3.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists, King’s consistent offense is critical for UMBC to keep pace in a tight contest.
- Josh Odunowo – A steady contributor with roughly 8.2 points and 5.0 rebounds per contest, Odunowo helps UMBC control the glass and provides timely buckets.
- DJ Armstrong – Known for his three-point shooting over recent games, Armstrong’s ability to hit perimeter shots boosts UMBC’s spacing and scoring options.
Vermont Catamounts
- Gus Yalden – Averaging around 16.3 points and 5.6 rebounds, Yalden’s scoring and presence inside make him Vermont’s focal point on both ends of the court.
- TJ Hurley – A versatile scorer, Hurley has put up strong numbers recently and his ability to create shots and stretch the defense will be key for Vermont’s offense.
- Sean Blake – The Catamounts’ primary distributor at about 4.1 assists per game, Blake’s playmaking helps get teammates involved and keeps the offense flowing.
Stat Comparison
Statistic | Vermont | UMBC |
|---|
Points per game | 75.2 | 75.2 |
Points allowed per game | 69.9 | 68.9 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 47% |
Rebounds per game | 35.3 | 34.9 |
Assists per game | 13.3 | 12.7 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Vermont won the last meeting between these teams on January 29 by a 64-55 score.
- Vermont is 12-14 against the spread going into this contest.
- UMBC comes into this matchup with a 12-10 record against the spread for the year.
- Vermont is 15-10-1 against the spread going into Thursday's game.
- UMBC is 11-11 in the over/under market for the year.
Vermont vs UMBC Model Projection
Score Projection: Vermont 72 – UMBC 70 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Vermont 51%, UMBC 49% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This is going to be an incredibly tight game between two teams that could very well represent the America East in this year's NCAA Tournament. These teams are separated by very little statistically. But Vermont's culture and their ability to win close games in big spots should help them to get a victory here. I'll lay the points with the Catamounts in what could be one of the best games of the night in college hoops.
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