The stage is set in Maui for a high-stakes championship game as the USC Trojans face the Arizona State Sun Devils in the 2025 Southwest Maui Invitational. USC arrives unbeaten at 6–0 after winning three straight one-possession games. ASU is sitting at 6–1 and is aiming to beat a second straight former Pac-12 rival to claim the Maui title. Before tip-off, my breakdown of this game and my USC vs Arizona State prediction can be found below.
Our USC vs Arizona State Pick
Pick: Arizona State +4.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: USC Trojans vs Arizona State Sun Devils
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 26, 2025, 2:30 PM ET
- Venue: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui, HI
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- USC rolls in undefeated. Their offense is humming, averaging 92.5 points per game. Recent performances feature solid scoring from Rodney Rice and Ezra Ausar, both of whom are capable of big nights. Chad Baker-Mazara is also one of their top stars after he transferred in from Purdue. But the Trojans have won their last three games by a combined six points and they could be in for another close game here.
- Arizona State is battle-tested. The Sun Devils needed clutch play from Maurice Odum to outlast Texas, and they erased a double-digit deficit against Washington State to reach the final. ASU’s offense averages 81.7 points per game. It is good, but less explosive than USC’s. The Sun Devils will need to dig in defensively to slow down USC and win this championship matchup.
- Both teams are playing their third game in three days. This game could simply come down to which team handles the fatigue the best, as both teams try to claim the crown in paradise.
- This is the second straight game in which Arizona State is playing one of its former rivals from the Pac-12. The Sun Devils took care of business against Washington State on Wednesday and will try to earn a similar result against the Trojans here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- USC is 3-3 against the spread going into this game.
- Arizona State is 5-1-1 against the spread entering this matchup.
- The Trojans are also 3-3 in the over/under market for the year.
- The under has hit in three of Arizona State’s first four games.
- USC is 29-17 all-time against Arizona State in basketball. This is their first meeting since Arizona State left the Pac-12.
USC vs Arizona State Model Projection
Score Projection: USC 87 – Arizona State 84
Win Probability: USC 55%, Arizona State 45%
Final Thoughts
We are likely to see another close game involving USC in this contest. The Sun Devils are my pick to cover the spread in this game, as USC’s run of one-possession games should continue in the Maui final. Arizona State could very well take this one outright, but we’ll take the points in what should be a thrilling end to a Maui Invitational that has had plenty of surprises despite lacking the star power of previous editions of that historic tournament.
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