Updated January 19, 2026
As the Big 12 Conference schedule rolls on, the UCF Knights will visit the Iowa State Cyclones on Tuesday night in Ames. Both teams enter this game with 3-2 conference records and looking to stabilize things after losses in their last outing. Before this contest tips off from Ames, you can continue reading below to find my UCF vs Iowa State prediction.
Pick: | UCF +13.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Iowa State arrives in this contest with a 16-2 overall record and a 3-2 mark in Big 12 play, but its recent two-game losing streak has provided a reality check for a team that once looked locked into a top-tier national standing. In its most recent outing, the Cyclones fell 79-70 at Cincinnati despite a 34-point explosion from Milan Momcilovic. That game was a showcase of Iowa State's scoring firepower and concerning defensive lapses that bettors should keep in mind when breaking down Cyclones games. Iowa State’s home-court advantage remains a factor as well, as the Cyclones are unbeaten at Hilton Coliseum this season and have been great there in years past as well.
UCF enters at 14-3 (3-2 Big 12), battling some of the strongest competition the Big 12 has to offer. The Knights recently dropped a competitive outing to a top-ranked Arizona team, but they previously grabbed a key win over Cincinnati thanks to clutch execution down the stretch. UCF’s offense is averaging a number similar to that of the Cyclones heading into this contest. But the Knights are inferior on defense for the most part and will have to lock in defensively to pull off a huge upset here.
Score Projection: UCF 76 – Iowa State 88 ATS PRO
Win Probability: UCF 9%, Iowa State 91% ATS PRO
The Cyclones should get back into the win column on their home floor here. However, I think that we will see a more competitive game than the double-digit point spread would imply we are in for. I'll take the points with UCF, as their dangerous offense should at least keep them in a position to keep this game within 10 points or so.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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