Updated March 9, 2026
The opening round of the ACC Tournament features an intriguing battle between Syracuse and SMU on Tuesday night. Both teams enter postseason play searching for a reset after uneven finishes to the regular season. Syracuse closed the year at 15-16 and heads into the tournament on a five-game losing streak after an overtime defeat to Pittsburgh. SMU finished the regular season 19-12 and still holds hopes of strengthening its postseason résumé with a strong run in Charlotte. Before tip-off in the first round of the ACC Tournament, you will find my Syracuse vs SMU prediction below.
Pick: SMU -4.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Syracuse enters the ACC Tournament trying to halt a late-season slide. The Orange dropped their final five games, including a 71-69 overtime loss to Pittsburgh in the regular-season finale. Offensive consistency has been the biggest concern during that stretch, with the team struggling to maintain its shooting efficiency and often relying heavily on its top scorer, Nate Kingz.
SMU has experienced some turbulence as well, losing four straight games at the end of the regular season, but it remains one of the most explosive offenses in the conference. The Mustangs average 85 points per game and shoot close to 50% from the field as a team. Their ability to score quickly and distribute the ball has made them a difficult opponent for teams that struggle defensively.
The biggest story going into this game is the NCAA Tournament hopes of SMU. The Mustangs are in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology as one of the last four at-large teams in the field as of Monday, March 9. A loss here would effectively end their season, while a win would keep their chances of making the tournament alive.
SMU Mustangs
Syracuse Orange
Stat | Syracuse | SMU |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 75.2 | 85.0 |
Points allowed per game | 73.9 | 78.4 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 49% |
Rebounds Per Game | 34.2 | 37.6 |
Assists Per Game | 12.7 | 17.1 |
Score Projection: Syracuse 74 – SMU 80 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Syracuse 39%, SMU 61% ATS PRO
This ACC Tournament meeting features two teams looking to extend their seasons, with SMU fighting for its NCAA Tournament life. Syracuse has the talent to compete and already proved it can challenge SMU in a close contest earlier this year. However, the Mustangs possess the more efficient offense and motivation to keep its season going. I'll take SMU to win and cover the spread in this ACC Tournament first-round matchup.
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