Updated March 9, 2026
The opening round of the Big Ten Tournament brings together two teams trying to salvage difficult seasons as Maryland meets Oregon on March 10 in Chicago. Both programs finished near the bottom of the conference standings, but tournament basketball creates a fresh opportunity to spark a miracle run to March Madness. Maryland enters with an 11-20 record and just four conference victories, while Oregon finished slightly ahead at 12-19 with five league wins. Here, I've got you covered with my Maryland vs Oregon prediction to start the Big Ten Tournament.
Pick: Maryland +3.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 2 out of 5
This game features the 17 seed Terrapins against the 16 seed Ducks in the Big Ten Tournament opener. Oregon won the earlier meeting between the teams this season and holds a 2-0 advantage in the all-time series. That previous win gives the Ducks confidence entering the rematch.
Another storyline is recent form. Oregon has shown signs of improvement late in the season with wins against Washington and Wisconsin in recent weeks. Maryland has struggled more consistently, particularly in conference play, where the Terrapins went 4-16. But neither of these teams have been impressive at all this year and it's hard to feel much confidence in one direction or the other.
The neutral floor at this tournament also adds intrigue. Both teams were significantly weaker away from home during the regular season, so playing in Chicago levels the environment and may produce a competitive contest. Geographically, Maryland has to travel far to the West, while Oregon has a long trip East, which should even out somewhat.
Oregon Ducks
Maryland Terrapins
Stat | Maryland | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 69.9 | 71.2 |
Points allowed per game | 77.2 | 74.1 |
Team Field Goal % | 41% | 43% |
Rebounds per game | 35.4 | 34.6 |
Assists per game | 10.5 | 14.4 |
Score Projection: Maryland 72 – Oregon 73 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Maryland 44%, Oregon 56% ATS PRO
This Big Ten Tournament opener features two teams hoping to extend their season after difficult campaigns. Maryland has struggled defensively and enters with poor recent results, while Oregon arrives with slightly better form and more balanced offensive production. I don't feel all that strongly about backing either of these teams. If I had to go in one direction or the other here, I'd take the points with the Terps, but I'd recommend looking elsewhere on the college basketball board for more value.
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